NPK International, Inc. (NPKI)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.04-0.77%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NPKI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -16.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NPKI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the information in the exhibit attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. Use of Non-GAAP Financial Inf…
Why it matters: Quoting stayed near 20% growth, and much of the work came from newer regions. More growth would show the new leader is helping turn interest into work.
Supportive ifQuoting growth rises above 20% year over year. Rental revenue then rises in expansion regions.
Worry ifQuoting growth falls below 20% year over year, or rental revenue in expansion regions does not grow.
Why it matters: The added capacity aims to grow the rental fleet and cut reliance on cross-rental mats. A delay could push back those gains.
Supportive ifNPK reports that added production at Carencro began by mid-2027. Planned capacity rises by nearly 50%.
Worry ifNPK reports a start date after mid-2027, or the added capacity falls well short of 50%.
Why it matters: Management cut its full-year outlook after dry Texas weather delayed matting demand. Results below the new range would deepen that concern.
Worry if2026 revenue is below $300 million, the low end of the revised range.
Less concerning if2026 revenue is at least $300 million and no more than $305 million.
Why it matters: Rental and service revenue grew 12% in Q3, but dry weather hurt U.S. demand. Further growth would show that activity is broadening beyond the U.K. deal.
Supportive ifA later quarter shows rental and service revenue growth of at least 12% year over year, with U.S. rental revenue also growing.
Worry ifRental and service revenue growth falls below 12%, or U.S. rental revenue declines year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$115 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $409 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,471 loss on $10,000 · 44.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.