NPK International, Inc. (NPKI)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.22+0.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NPKI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 53.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
NPKI — CFO transition
Dated 2026-09-02
CFO — Gregg Piontek: The CFO is retiring on a planned timeline with a formal search initiated and an internal CAO appointed to support the transition, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss.
Why it matters: A margin over 30% shows good cost control and efficiency. This is key for making money.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is more than 30%.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is less than 28%.
Why it matters: Higher capex could indicate aggressive growth strategies and expansion efforts. Lower capex may signal caution or delays in growth plans.
Watch forCapital spending is over $80 million for 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending is below $65 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Slower rental revenue growth may show weaker demand in the utilities sector.
Worry ifRental revenue growth below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRental revenue growth at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: The CFO change could affect financial stability and strategy. A smooth change is important for investor trust.
Watch forThe new CFO starts and fits into the role without problems.
Also watch forThe change leads to financial problems or bad decisions.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $381 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,630 loss on $10,000 · 26.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The growth is important for meeting rising demand and boosting profits.
Supportive ifThe first phase of the manufacturing growth is done early.
Worry ifThere are delays in the manufacturing growth project or costs go up.
Why it matters: Steady revenue growth shows strong demand and good execution of growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 20% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Meeting the EBITDA target shows strong performance. This can help how the market sees us.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for 2026-Q1 meets or exceeds $92M.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $92M.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector shows signs of growth, it could benefit NPKI. This would indicate a better market environment.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.