Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.43-3.22%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.96 → 0.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NRDS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $19 million in Q2 2026 | Profit margins improve with adjusted EBITDA near $27 million. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $19 million in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NRDS is a moderate-growth business with robust earnings quality and stable management, but it is not a smooth growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, while elevated risk and recent uneven results keep the near-term setup uncertain.
The valuation signal is mixed: NRDS is described as cheap versus peers, while its expectations gap is negative and the overall priced-in tag is justified. Valuation has fallen by 14.7 points, but the evidence does not provide enough detail to say exactly what earnings assumptions the market reflects.
Revenue growth has been moderate, with consumer revenue rising and SMB revenue declining in 2026-Q2; management projects 17% revenue growth for 2026-Q3. Adjusted EBITDA rose sharply in Q1 but fell in Q2, and the Q3 outlook points to a possible recovery, though execution remains uneven. Near term, consecutive earnings misses and recent peer misses make the next results a meaningful risk.
The thesis depends on management sustaining revenue growth and improving adjusted EBITDA despite mixed segment performance. A guidance cut at the next call would weaken the setup, while lower interest rates or continued strong results from large sector peers could provide a tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis remains intact but depends on steadier execution, especially in EBITDA and SMB revenue. Near-term earnings risk is elevated. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in NerdWallet, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $186 million. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls below $186 million in Q2 2026 |
Revenue: $197.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $186 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 2026197,300,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share repurchase authorization increases to $125 million | The company buys back shares, increasing repurchase authorization to $125 million. | Intact | No progress or reversal on share buyback program | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.06 → $0.96 · observed estimates
$0.94B → $0.97B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.06 | $943,897,260 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.06 | $943,897,260 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.06 | $943,897,260 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.06 | $943,897,260 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.06 | $943,897,260 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.06 | $943,897,260 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.06 | $943,897,260 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.06 | $944,147,260 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.06 | $944,147,260 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.06 | $944,147,260 | 1 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.15 | $939,884,729 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.98 | $964,216,078 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.98 | $967,680,589 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.96 | $970,116,707 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.