NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.88-0.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NRDS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -34.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NRDS — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, NerdWallet, Inc. (the Company) issued a press release announcing the financial results for the Company’s second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Strong consumer revenue growth signals effective strategies and market demand. It helps offset SMB revenue decline.
Supportive ifQ3 consumer revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifConsumer revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A worsening decline indicates deeper issues in the SMB segment. It reflects market challenges.
Worry ifSMB revenue decline exceeds -11% year over year.
Less concerning ifSMB revenue decline improves to less than -11% year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into NerdWallet's performance and outlook. This could impact its valuation.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue decline year over year.
Why it matters: This guidance shows that management is confident in growing revenue. It shows their plan and market conditions.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth guidance of 17% year over year is confirmed.
Worry ifGuidance for Q3 revenue growth is below 10% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $523 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,242 loss on $10,000 · 52.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management believes in the company's value. This helps the stock price.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $50 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchases drop below $20 million.
Why it matters: This range shows that management wants to make more money. It shows how well they operate.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA lands within the $39M to $47M range in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $39M in Q3.
Why it matters: SMB revenue has been going down. A turnaround would show better market conditions or good strategies.
Watch forSMB revenue grows year-over-year in Q3.
Also watch forSMB revenue continues to decline year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it raises worries about cash flow. This affects how they operate.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents fall below $56 million.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents remain above $56 million.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth turns positive, it could signal a recovery for NerdWallet. This is crucial for future performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth shows a positive change from the previous quarter.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative or getting worse.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA guidance shows better cost management. This helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance goes up to $19-$27 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance stays at or below $19 million.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program show management's trust in the company's value. This can help the stock price.
Watch forNew share buyback plans or increases in the current program are announced.
Also watch forNo updates or a reduction in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Stabilizing SMB revenue is key to overall growth. It shows recovery in a challenging segment.
Supportive ifSMB revenue decline is less than 5% year over year.
Worry ifSMB revenue decline worsens to more than 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Steady growth in consumer revenue shows strong demand. This helps keep overall revenue stable.
Supportive ifConsumer revenue growth remains above 8% year over year.
Worry ifConsumer revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.