NerdWallet, Inc. (NRDS)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.43-3.22%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NRDS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
NRDS — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, NerdWallet, Inc. (the Company) issued a press release announcing the financial results for the Company’s second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Management plans to spend five times more on this work in 2026 than in 2025. Results can show if the added spend brings direct customer ties.
Watch forA company update shows clear growth in its own audience or direct customer ties, along with higher spending.
Also watch forA company update shows no clear growth in its own audience or direct customer ties, despite higher spending.
Why it matters: Management's Q3 plan calls for 17% revenue growth. Results will test whether growth is speeding up.
Watch forQ3 revenue grows at least 17% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 revenue growth is below 17% year over year.
Why it matters: SMB revenue fell 11% in Q2, with search traffic pressure still in place. A deeper drop would add to the growth strain.
Worry ifQ3 SMB revenue falls more than 11% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 SMB revenue falls less than 11% year over year or grows.
Why it matters: Credit card revenue fell as organic search traffic stayed weak. Another decline would add pressure to consumer growth.
Worry ifConsumer credit card revenue falls year over year again in Q3.
Less concerning ifConsumer credit card revenue is flat or grows year over year in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$147 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $536 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,242 loss on $10,000 · 52.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA fell 31% in Q2 from a year earlier. Q3 results will show whether that drop was brief.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA is above $47 million, beating the guided range.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA is below $39 million, missing the guided range.