Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Nerdy, Inc. (NRDY)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$5.89-6.66%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NRDY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve breakeven non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA | Nerdy aims to reach breakeven adjusted EBITDA in 2026. | Improving | adjusted EBITDA remains negative through FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We reported a non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss of $0.9 million for the second quarter of 2026, in line with our guidance of negative $2 million to breakeven.” “We reported non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA of positive $1.0 million for the first quarter of 2026, beating our guidance of approximately breakeven.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making business in a strategic transition, rather than an established compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: adjusted EBITDA losses have narrowed, but company momentum has weakened and recent performance trails its industry cohort.
The valuation signal is low-confidence and broadly aligned with the model, with NRDY at a premium to peers. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may still be demanding relative to the evidence, though the priced-in assessment is tagged as justified and fragility is low.
Near term, revenue guidance is lower after the planned exit of Varsity Tutors for Schools and institutional headwinds; revenue declined from the first to the second quarter of 2026. Adjusted EBITDA losses have narrowed, and management targets a range from a small loss to breakeven for 2026, excluding exit costs, but leadership transitions and a risk of weaker guidance remain important uncertainties.
The multi-year view hinges on whether the Consumer focus can support the revised revenue outlook while the company keeps reducing costs and moves toward breakeven. In the near term, another guidance cut would be a negative signal; easier rates or steadier results and guidance from large technology peers could improve the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NRDY’s thesis rests on execution of its business shift and continued progress on losses, but weaker momentum, high risk, and a premium to peers leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain cash position of $40-$45M by end of 2026 | A supporting condition in Nerdy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $40-$45 million cash. | Intact | cash falls below $35 million at FY26 end | Cash and cash equivalents: $38.424M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $40-$45 million cash. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Date unavailable38,424,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We now expect to end the year with approximately $30 to $32 million of cash, inclusive of the $20 million drawn on our term loan, compared to our prior expectation of $40 to $45 million.” “We expect to end the year with $40-45 million of cash, inclusive of $20 million currently drawn on our term loan.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stabilize leadership after CFO departure | A supporting condition in Nerdy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No further key executive departures in next 4 quarters. | Under Pressure | Additional key executive departures occur within 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reaffirm revenue guidance of $180-$190M for 2026 | A primary condition in Nerdy, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $180 million revenue. | Broken | annual revenue falls below $175 million in FY26 | Revenue: $43.231M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $180 million revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202643,231,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.01 → $-1.95 · observed estimates
$0.20B → $0.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.01 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.01 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.01 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.01 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.01 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.01 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.01 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.01 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.01 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.01 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.12 | $202,107,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-1.95 | $177,214,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.