Nerdy, Inc. (NRDY)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.35-2.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NRDY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 120 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NRDY — COO transition
Dated 2026-08-21
COO — John Paszterko: The Chief Operating Officer was terminated effective immediately, representing a sudden loss of a senior executive.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change how a company makes money. Investors want to know the future.
Watch forNew CFO provides a clear strategy and meets or exceeds financial targets.
Also watch forThe new CFO does not give clear information. The financial results are worse than expected.
Why it matters: The company cut its revenue outlook due to challenges. Meeting or beating guidance shows stability.
Watch forQ3 revenue is at or above $42 million. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forQ3 revenue falls below $36 million, signaling deeper issues.
Why it matters: The reverse stock split aims to boost share price for NYSE compliance. A successful adjustment may improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe share price stabilizes above $5 for at least two consecutive weeks post-split.
Worry ifThe share price falls below $5 within two weeks after the split.
Why it matters: The exit aims to focus on core Consumer business. Success here could improve margins and operational focus.
Supportive ifCost savings from the exit are over $2 million. This helps Q4 results.
Worry ifExit costs are over $4 million. This hurts cash flow.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$179 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $575 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,610 loss on $10,000 · 56.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More memberships show that retention and acquisition strategies are working. This can increase revenue.
Supportive ifActive Learning Memberships grew year-over-year by the end of 2026.
Worry ifActive Learning Memberships fell year-over-year at the end of 2026.
Why it matters: The reverse stock split aims to raise the share price to meet NYSE requirements. A successful outcome could stabilize investor confidence.
Supportive ifThe share price of NRDY stabilizes above $1.00 after the split on August 19, 2026.
Worry ifThe share price of NRDY falls below $1.00 after the split on August 19, 2026.
Why it matters: This earnings report will provide key insights into revenue and cost management.
Watch forThe earnings report shows growth. EBITDA metrics are better.
Also watch forEarnings report reveals a decline in revenue or increased losses.
Why it matters: The COO's exit may disrupt operations and focus. This can affect performance and investor feelings.
Worry ifOperational metrics show a big drop or disruption after the COO left.
Less concerning ifOperational metrics stay stable or improve after the COO left.
Why it matters: Less cash raises concerns about liquidity. This can hurt operations and growth plans.
Worry ifCash position was below $30 million at the end of 2026.
Less concerning ifCash position reported at or above $30 million at year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Nerdy wants to stop the drop in Active Members. Growth would mean better customer retention.
Supportive ifActive Members increase to above 30,000 by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifActive Members continue to decline below 29,000 by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may hurt Nerdy's performance. This could signal a broader slowdown.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the last year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Changes in active memberships will show how well Nerdy keeps and gains customers.
Supportive ifActive learning memberships grow from 29.1 thousand. This shows better customer retention.
Worry ifActive learning memberships drop from 29.1 thousand. This shows worse customer retention.