Nerdy, Inc. (NRDY)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$5.89-6.66%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NRDY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -55.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 61 industry peers
NRDY — COO transition
Dated 2026-08-21
COO — John Paszterko: The Chief Operating Officer was terminated effective immediately, representing a sudden loss of a senior executive.
Why it matters: The Q3 loss range tests whether cost cuts can offset the seasonal revenue dip and exit costs.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss is worse than $9 million, excluding exit costs.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss is $6 million or less, excluding exit costs.
Why it matters: Nerdy regained compliance after a 1-for-15 reverse split. Another lapse could put its NYSE listing at risk.
Worry ifThe NYSE notifies Nerdy that its 30-trading-day average closing price is below $1.00.
Less concerning ifThe NYSE confirms Nerdy remains above the $1.00 average-price rule. It has issued no new minimum-price notice.
Why it matters: Management said member growth is a key goal. More members would support its shift to Consumer learning.
Supportive ifQ3 active Learning Memberships exceed the year-earlier count, after falling 5% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifQ3 active Learning Memberships remain below the year-earlier count, with the decline still at 5% or worse.
Why it matters: Revenue fell from $48.7 million in Q1 to $43.3 million in Q2. A miss would add to pressure on the new plan.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue lands below $168 million, the low end of the revised $168 million to $175 million outlook.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 revenue lands within or above the $168 million to $175 million outlook.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$200 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $662 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,333 loss on $10,000 · 73.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Cash fell from $44.7 million in Q1 to $38.4 million in Q2. A further drop could tighten room to fund operations.
Worry ifCash at year-end 2026 is below $30 million. Management's goal is $30 million to $32 million.
Less concerning ifCash at year-end 2026 is $30 million or more, within or above management's stated goal.
Why it matters: The exit shifts focus to Consumer learning and carries costs. A smooth close would support the new focus and cost plan.
Supportive ifThe company says the wind-down is complete. Total exit costs are within the stated $2 million to $4 million range.
Worry ifThe company reports exit costs above $4 million or says the wind-down is delayed.