Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Energy Vault Holdings Inc (NRGV)
NYSEUtilitiesElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.80-11.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NRGV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain stable capital allocation and limit dilution | A supporting condition in Energy Vault Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No large unplanned equity sales or debt increases. | Under Pressure | Significant unplanned equity sales or debt increase | 2 unplanned debt events vs 0 target NRGV entered new financing and credit agreements in Aug/Sep 2026, creating direct financial obligations. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business with a loss-making profile, not a proven compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent guidance and execution have improved, but performance remains weak relative to its industry cohort.
The evidence describes NRGV as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative and model confidence is medium. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations despite the lower peer valuation.
Near term, revenue growth, improving reported gross margin, and a raised 2026 revenue outlook show progress toward management’s goals. However, the business remains loss-making, recent financial performance is weak, and a new financial obligation adds a risk to execution and cash plans.
The multi-year thesis depends on NRGV delivering its 2026 revenue and margin goals while building cash. A reversal of the recently raised guidance would damage management credibility; Fed rate cuts or stronger results from large Utilities companies could provide a more supportive sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NRGV remains a high-risk, early-execution thesis with real signs of operational progress but limited evidence of durable financial strength. The central test is whether delivery continues without another guidance reversal. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company expects $150-$200M free cash flow in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $150 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $-39.712M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $150 million free cash flow. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 2026-39,712,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 15%-25% gross margin in 2026 | It targets 15%-25% gross margin. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 15% in FY26 | Gross margin: 30.95% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 15% gross margin. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 202630.951696 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Second Quarter 2026 Financial Highlights • Backlog reached ~$2 billion as of August 10, 2026, up ~107% year-over-year, of which ~40% is expected to convert to revenue over the next 12-18 months and ~60% is from owned and operated projects under operation and construction with long-term offtake agreements • Q2 2026 revenue of $17.4 million increased $8.9 million, or 104%, from $8.5 million in the prior-year period, driven by progress in Australia-based BESS projects • Q2 2026 GAAP gross profit of $5.4 million increased $2.9 million, or 114%, from $2.5 million in the prior-year period.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Achieve $225-$300 million revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Energy Vault Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $225 million total revenue. | Intact | Revenue falls below $225 million in FY26 | Revenue: $17.369M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $225 million total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 202617,369,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.29 → $-0.19 · observed estimates
$0.31B → $0.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.29 | $306,077,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.29 | $306,077,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.29 | $306,077,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.29 | $306,077,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.20 | $306,075,040 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.20 | $306,975,040 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.20 | $306,975,040 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.20 | $306,975,040 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.30 | $306,977,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.20 | $306,975,040 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.30 | $306,977,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.30 | $306,977,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.30 | $306,977,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.30 | $306,977,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.30 | $306,977,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.20 | $306,975,040 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.20 | $306,975,040 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.30 | $306,977,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.20 | $306,975,040 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.30 | $306,977,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.30 | $306,977,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.30 | $306,977,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.30 | $306,977,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.30 | $306,977,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.30 | $306,977,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.30 | $306,977,656 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.22 | $438,032,856 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.14 | $509,684,366 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.14 | $519,909,166 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.14 | $519,909,166 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.14 | $519,909,166 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.14 | $519,909,166 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.14 | $519,909,166 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.14 | $519,909,166 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.14 | $519,909,166 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.14 | $519,916,166 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.14 | $519,916,166 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.14 | $519,916,166 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.14 | $519,916,166 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.14 | $519,916,166 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.14 | $519,916,166 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.19 | $511,684,023 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.19 | $511,684,023 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.19 | $511,684,023 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.19 | $511,684,023 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.19 | $511,684,023 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.19 | $511,684,023 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.19 | $511,684,023 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.19 | $517,860,663 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.19 | $517,860,663 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.19 | $517,860,663 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.19 | $517,860,663 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.19 | $517,860,663 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.19 | $517,860,663 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.19 | $517,860,663 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.19 | $517,860,663 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.