Energy Vault Holdings Inc (NRGV)
NYSEUtilitiesElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.84+1.32%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NRGV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 85.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 80.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NRGV — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-20
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On August 14, 2026, EV Gen Set 1, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the “Borrower”) and EV Gen Set I HoldCo, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“Holdings”), each a subsidiary of Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into a credit agreement (the “Credit Agreement”) with CSC Delaware Trust Company, as administrative agent and collateral agent, and each of the lenders party thereto. The Credit Agreement provides for a se…
Why it matters: Gross margin trends show how well the company manages costs. They also show profitability.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 gross margin reaches 25% or higher.
Worry ifQ2 2026 gross margin falls below 15%.
Why it matters: A big increase in backlog shows strong demand. It also means more money in the future.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 contract backlog increases by more than 20% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifContract backlog growth is less than 10% compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing this project is key for making money. It supports the company’s plan.
Supportive ifThe Texas AI project is done and running.
Worry ifThe project has big delays or is not done as planned.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows how well the company is doing. It also shows market demand.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue exceeds $60 million, indicating strong growth.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue is under $50 million. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Progress on financing shows the company's ability to raise money for growth.
Supportive ifThey announced new financing. This is through convertible senior notes worth over $50 million.
Worry ifNo new financing was announced. This suggests possible capital constraints.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company is still losing money. This is key for investors.
Worry ifEarnings report shows a larger loss than the previous quarter.
Less concerning ifEarnings report shows a smaller loss or a profit.
Why it matters: Closing this deal expands Energy Vault’s market presence and revenue potential.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of the 850 MW BESS IPP project portfolio closes as planned in Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed or fails to close by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue guidance of $270-310 million shows strong demand and good execution.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance confirmed at $270 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance is now below $270 million.
Why it matters: A growing backlog means strong future revenue and success in operations.
Supportive ifContract backlog reported at $2 billion or more.
Worry ifContract backlog is now below $2 billion.
Why it matters: This margin shows good cost management and better profits.
Supportive ifGAAP gross margin reported at 25% or higher.
Worry ifGAAP gross margin reported below 20%.
Why it matters: Meeting this cash target shows strong financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifTotal cash balance reported at $160 million or more.
Worry ifTotal cash balance is now below $160 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$512 on $10,000 · ±5.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,010 loss on $10,000 · 10.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,133 loss on $10,000 · 61.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.