Energy Vault Holdings Inc (NRGV)
NYSEUtilitiesElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.80-11.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NRGV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 120.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 17 industry peers
NRGV — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-09-22
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On September 18, 2026, Development Vault, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the “Borrower”), an indirect subsidiary of Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. (“Energy Vault“ or the “Company”), entered into an amended and restated financing agreement (the “Financing Agreement”) with S2G Builders Special Opportunities Fund I, LP, a Delaware limited partnership, as administrative agen…
Why it matters: Cash rose to $148 million in Q2, but recent filings report new financing agreements. The year-end figure will show how cash and debt change together.
Watch forThe year-end report shows at least $160 million in total cash. It also shows no missed payments under the new financing agreements.
Also watch forThe year-end report shows total cash below $160 million. Or, a filing reports a missed payment under the new financing agreements.
Why it matters: Q2 results led management to raise its 2026 revenue range. Q3 will test whether project work is turning into sales.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is at least $67.5 million, the low end of guidance less Q1 and Q2 revenue.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $67.5 million, putting the low end of 2026 guidance out of reach without a strong Q4.
Why it matters: The first phase is tied to an 8 MW powered shell for Crusoe. Reaching commercial operation would show the project is moving from construction to service.
Supportive ifEnergy Vault reports that the first 8 MW phase at Snyder is in commercial operation by June 30, 2027.
Worry ifEnergy Vault reports that the first 8 MW phase is not in commercial operation by June 30, 2027.
Why it matters: Q2 GAAP gross margin was 31%. The full-year result will show whether margins stay near management's raised range.
Supportive ifThe 2026 full-year report shows GAAP gross margin of 20% or higher.
Worry ifThe 2026 full-year report shows GAAP gross margin below 20%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$446 on $10,000 · ±4.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,010 loss on $10,000 · 10.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,133 loss on $10,000 · 61.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.