Napco Security Technologies (NSSC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.01-0.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NSSC
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $37 NSSC trades at 23× p/e, below its 32× p/e peer median, but our blended $32 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $83.61 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $86.82 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $11.65 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $13.92 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 30% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 5.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.35/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $25.17 |
| 19.5 |
| 1.13 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $39.60 | 25.1 | 1.58 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $51.17 | 31.8 | 1.61 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $25.47 | 4.5 | 5.67 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $10.26 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $42.16 | 26.2 | 1.61 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $54.06 | 31.8 | 1.70 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $60.23 | 25.1 | 2.40 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $32.19 | 4.5 | 7.16 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $79.65 | 25.1 | 3.18 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $36.15 | 4.5 | 8.05 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |