Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Napco Security Technologies (NSSC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.99-5.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.83 → 1.75 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NSSC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase dividend per share to at least $0.15 by Q3 2026 | The company raises dividends steadily, now at 15 cents per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.125 in next two quarters | Dividend per share: $0.17 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.15 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 2, 20260.17 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented business with a recurring-service component, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis remains intact, with recent performance in the stronger half of its industry, but elevated risk and fragile earnings quality temper that progress.
Valuation evidence is mixed: NSSC is described as cheap versus peers, while the overall priced-in tag is stretched. The expectations gap is positive, but the snapshot does not explain its size or what specific results the market assumes, so the degree of optimism is unclear.
Near term, reported revenue growth and higher gross margin support continued operating progress. Recurring service revenue reached $25.3 million in 2026-Q2, and management’s stated priorities are on track, though full-year operating income was slightly below the prior year. A guidance cut is a key risk; the recent earnings beat and higher company momentum are positive, but earnings quality remains fragile.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining revenue growth, expanding margins, and continuing to grow recurring service revenue without a guidance cut. Rate cuts and stabilization among major technology companies could support the sector backdrop, while weaker guidance or renewed sector pressure would test the business setup.
For a 1-3 year view, NSSC shows real operating progress and an intact thesis, but fragile earnings quality and mixed valuation signals make execution the central issue. The evidence is medium confidence, and the path depends on continued growth and steady guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is solid, supporting growth and payouts. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $20 million next quarter |
Free cash flow: $17.249M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $25.96 million. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 24, 202617,249,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain gross margin near 90.4% in Q3 2026 | A primary condition in Napco Security Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is ~90.4%. | Broken | Gross margin falls below 85% next quarter | Gross margin: 58.73% FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~90.4%. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 2, 202658.727491 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth at or above $49.2 million in Q3 2026 | A primary condition in Napco Security Technologies's published investment case. The stated target is >= $49.2 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $43.9 million in any quarter next year | Revenue: $49.98M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $49.2 million. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 2, 202649,980,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.89 → $1.75 · observed estimates
$0.26B → $0.23B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.89 | $256,100,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.83 | $237,825,000 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.77 | $233,481,333 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.75 | $232,298,000 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.