Napco Security Technologies (NSSC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$37.01-0.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NSSC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 16.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NSSC — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-24
REGULATION FD DISCLOSURE On August 20, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $.17 per share payable on October 2, 2026, to stockholders of record on September 11, 2026. Information regarding this declaration is included in the press release furnished as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: Higher dividends show financial health. They also show a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend per share increases above $0.15 in the next quarter.
Worry ifThe dividend remains at $0.15 or decreases.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in revenue growth, which is a key priority for management.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth stays above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Litigation costs can have a big impact on net income. They also affect financial performance.
Worry ifNet income improves when litigation costs are not high.
Less concerning ifNet income falls because litigation costs are over $16 million.
Why it matters: The new CEO's plans may affect performance. They could also change how investors feel.
Watch forQ4 results show more revenue growth. New leadership has also helped profits.
Also watch forQ4 results show lower revenue or profits compared to Q3.
Why it matters: The new CEO's strategies will shape the company's future growth and direction.
Watch forRevenue growth and higher margins are expected next quarter with Kevin Buchel in charge.
Also watch forRevenue growth stops or falls with the new leadership.
Why it matters: The leadership change may impact the company's plans and results soon.
Watch forManagement shares good news about plans and results after the leadership change.
Also watch forNegative comments or poor results show problems from the leadership change.
Why it matters: The new CEO's approach will shape future growth. Positive changes could enhance investor confidence.
Watch forManagement will announce a new plan or product in six months.
Also watch forNo new plans or changes in strategy will be announced in six months.
Why it matters: Sustaining high growth in recurring service revenue is key for long-term success. A growth rate above 12% would show strong demand and effective management.
Supportive ifRecurring service revenue growth exceeds 12% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifRecurring service revenue growth falls below 10% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: The new CEO's strategies could change company direction and affect growth.
Watch forRevenue or profit margins improve after the leadership change.
Also watch forRevenue or profit margins drop after the leadership change.
Why it matters: Net revenue growth indicates the overall health and demand for NAPCO's products.
Supportive ifNet revenue grows more than 10% year over year in Q4.
Worry ifNet revenue growth is less than 5% year over year in Q4.
Why it matters: Going beyond this target shows strong finances and good cost control.
Supportive ifQ4 net income reported above $13 million.
Worry ifQ4 net income reported below $10 million.
Why it matters: Better margins show improved cost control and product demand. This helps the company's growth.
Supportive ifGross profit margin exceeds 60% in Q4 results.
Worry ifGross profit margin drops below 57% in Q4 results.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows strong financial health and good cost management. This helps investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income is over $17.8 million in Q3. This shows continued profit growth.
Worry ifNet income is below $15 million. This suggests possible financial problems.
Why it matters: An increase in dividends shows strong cash flow. It shows management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a dividend greater than $0.17 per share in the next announcement.
Worry ifThe Board keeps the dividend at $0.17 or reduces it, indicating cash flow concerns.
Why it matters: The new CEO's performance is key for growth plans and keeping investor trust.
Watch forGood operational metrics and plans under new CEO Kevin Buchel.
Also watch forA drop in key metrics or bad feedback about leadership changes.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $377 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,601 loss on $10,000 · 26.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.