Napco Security Technologies (NSSC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$31.75-0.06%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NSSC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NSSC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-02
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION On November 2, 2026, the registrant issued a press release to report results for the three months ended September 30, 2026. This press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached hereto, is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, and shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of…
Why it matters: The board raised the quarterly dividend from $0.15 to $0.17 per share. A later increase would extend that stated capital plan.
Supportive ifThe board declares a quarterly dividend above $0.17 per share in a later update.
Worry ifThe board keeps the dividend at $0.17 or cuts it in a later update.
Why it matters: Service revenue grew 12.9% in Q4 and had a $103 million run rate. It also earns over 90% gross margin.
Supportive ifQ1 fiscal 2027 recurring service revenue rises year over year and stays near or above $25.3 million.
Worry ifQ1 fiscal 2027 recurring service revenue is below $25.3 million or down from a year ago.
Why it matters: Equipment revenue rose 7.7% in Q4. Management linked growth to door locks and StarLink fire communicators.
Supportive ifQ1 fiscal 2027 equipment revenue grows year over year from the $30.5 million Q4 level.
Worry ifQ1 fiscal 2027 equipment revenue falls below $30.5 million or declines year over year.
Why it matters: Buchel took over day-to-day leadership in July. His results can show whether sales and profit growth continue through the change.
Watch forQ1 fiscal 2027 revenue and adjusted EBITDA both grow year over year.
Also watch forQ1 fiscal 2027 revenue or adjusted EBITDA falls year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $384 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,254 loss on $10,000 · 32.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q4 gross margin included about 600 basis points from tariff refunds. A lower margin may show how results look without that boost.
Worry ifQ1 fiscal 2027 gross margin falls below 55.3%, the prior-year Q1 margin of 57.2% less six points.
Less concerning ifQ1 fiscal 2027 gross margin stays at or above 57.2% without a similar tariff refund boost.