Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$19.03-14.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.51 → 0.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NTGR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations improves to positive | NETGEAR is improving cash flow, with cash from operations rising to $1.6M in Q1 2026. | Improving | cash from operations remains negative in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations: $-8.52M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > 0 cash from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026-8,520,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a business-improvement story, not yet a steady compounder: earnings remain loss-making on a GAAP basis, and recent financial performance is weak. The multi-year view is on watch, with management’s execution on Enterprise growth and cost control providing support but elevated risk remaining.
The valuation evidence is mixed: NTGR is described as cheap versus peers, but the model also shows a 31% premium to peers and has low confidence. The expectations gap is elevated, while the priced-in assessment labels the setup unjustified; the evidence does not explain the gap in detail.
Near term, profitability has improved: GAAP operating losses narrowed from $13.6 million in Q1 to $8.4 million in Q2, while non-GAAP operating income rose from $1.7 million to $4.0 million. Enterprise revenue grew in both quarters and contributed 69% of Q2 non-GAAP gross profit, but Consumer revenue fell about 9.5% year over year in each quarter and the latest earnings event was a miss.
The multi-year thesis hinges on whether Enterprise can keep growing profitably and Consumer can protect gross profit while recurring revenue grows. Near term, another guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easier rates or steadier results from larger technology peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NTGR’s thesis rests on continued Enterprise growth, better operating results, and resilience in Consumer despite declining revenue. Recent progress in profitability is encouraging, but weak performance, loss-making results, and elevated risk leave the thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management aims to improve operating margin to a positive range by mid-2026. |
| Broken |
| operating margin remains below -1% in Q2 2026 |
Operating margin: -8.19% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= -1% and <= 2% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 2026-8.187278 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches $150M to $165M | A primary condition in NETGEAR, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $150M and <= $165M revenue. | Intact | revenue falls below $150M in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $167.345M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $150M and <= $165M revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 2026167,345,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.61 → $0.51 · observed estimates
$0.72B → $0.72B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.61 | $724,340,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.61 | $724,340,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.61 | $724,340,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.61 | $724,340,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.61 | $724,340,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.61 | $724,340,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.61 | $724,340,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.61 | $724,887,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.61 | $724,887,670 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.54 | $720,754,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.61 | $724,340,667 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.51 | $720,035,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.