NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.31+1.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NTGR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 101.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 98.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NTGR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, NETGEAR, Inc. (“NETGEAR” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its second fiscal quarter ended June 28, 2026, the text of which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to this
Why it matters: Strong growth in consumer subscriptions can help balance losses in other areas.
Supportive ifConsumer subscription revenue grew at least 12% compared to last year.
Worry ifConsumer subscription revenue growth was below 12% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows financial stability. It means the company can invest in growth.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above $1.6 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $1.0 million in Q2.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal wider issues for NETGEAR. It may impact demand for its products.
Worry ifSector revenue growth has been below its median for two months in a row.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: FCC approval can enhance brand trust and drive sales in the consumer router market.
Supportive ifSales of consumer routers went up sharply after FCC approval.
Worry ifSales of consumer routers did not get better after approval.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$162 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $431 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,482 loss on $10,000 · 44.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stable revenue in the Consumer segment shows that costs are managed well. It also shows good handling of market changes.
Supportive ifConsumer segment revenue drop stays at or above -9% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifConsumer segment revenue decline worsens beyond -9% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show that management believes in the company's value. This can help how shareholders view the company.
Supportive ifLook for news of share buybacks over $10 million next quarter.
Worry ifNo news of share buybacks over $10 million next quarter.
Why it matters: A better operating margin means the company controls costs better. It shows how well the company operates.
Supportive ifGAAP operating margin improves to better than -8% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGAAP operating margin remains worse than -8% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong growth in recurring revenue is crucial for NETGEAR's long-term stability and growth.
Supportive ifAnnual recurring revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifAnnual recurring revenue growth falls below 10% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: If the Information Technology sector grows faster, it could help NETGEAR do better. A strong sector helps individual companies.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up again, reaching above 4%.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows down, falling below 4%.
Why it matters: The Enterprise segment is key for NETGEAR's future. Consistent growth here supports the company's shift to higher-margin products.
Supportive ifEnterprise revenue grows year over year by more than 7% in Q3.
Worry ifEnterprise revenue growth falls below 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: This guidance shows how well NETGEAR is handling problems in its Consumer segment. Meeting or beating this range shows strong performance despite challenges.
Watch forQ3 net revenue lands at or above $175 million.
Also watch forQ3 net revenue falls below $165 million.