NETGEAR, Inc. (NTGR)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.32+2.29%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NTGR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 104.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 101.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NTGR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, NETGEAR, Inc. (“NETGEAR” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for its second fiscal quarter ended June 28, 2026, the text of which is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to this
Why it matters: Q2 revenue fell 1.2% year over year, and the sector trend is easing. Revenue above guidance would show demand held up.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 4 report shows Q3 revenue above the guided range of $165 million to $175 million.
Worry ifThe Nov. 4 report shows Q3 revenue below $165 million.
Why it matters: Management guided to about $22 million, down 19% from a year earlier. A deeper drop would add to pressure from the shrinking business.
Worry ifQ3 revenue from Service Provider and related products is less than $22 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue from Service Provider and related products is at least $22 million.
Why it matters: NETGEAR says its approval keeps it outside the current software-update deadline. A change could put this advantage at risk.
Worry ifThe FCC or NETGEAR says conditional approval remains in place. All current router lines stay approved.
Less concerning ifThe FCC removes or limits NETGEAR's approval. Or NETGEAR says a router line is no longer approved.
Why it matters: Enterprise grew 7.7% in Q2 and now makes up over half of sales. More growth would support its role as the main growth engine.
Supportive ifQ3 Enterprise revenue grows more than 7.7% year over year, with segment gross margin above 54.1%.
Worry ifQ3 Enterprise revenue grows 7.7% or less year over year, or segment gross margin falls below 54.1%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $424 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,325 loss on $10,000 · 33.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Consumer sales fell 9.4% in Q2, while recurring revenue grew 15%. Continued growth would show strength beyond device sales.
Supportive ifConsumer annual recurring revenue grows more than 15% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifConsumer annual recurring revenue grows 15% or less year over year in Q3.