Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
Nutanix (NTNX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$58.55-8.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.69 → 2.70 EPS · FY ending Jul 31, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NTNX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain disciplined capital allocation including share buybacks | A supporting condition in Nutanix's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain buyback program near $750 million. | Intact | Company suspends or materially reduces buyback program | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-07-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NTNX is a growth and profitability story, not a turnaround based on the evidence here. The long-term thesis is intact, though recent momentum has fallen and management execution remains a point to watch.
The valuation evidence is mixed: NTNX is marked cheap versus peers, while its premium versus peers is 0.8 and the expectations gap is negative 0.24. Overall, the snapshot labels expectations as justified and fragility as low, but confidence in the valuation model is high only within the limits of the supplied evidence.
Recent results show stronger revenue, operating margin, annual free cash flow, and ARR, supporting management’s stated growth and profitability priorities. Near term, the miss risk is assessed as low, but momentum has dropped sharply and management transitions add uncertainty; specific evidence of adoption for the AI and platform initiatives is limited.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while rate cuts or steadier results and guidance from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop. Over the multi-year view, the key question is whether growth and cash generation continue while the company delivers clearer evidence of progress in hybrid cloud and AI opportunities.
The 1-3 year thesis is supported by strong recent financial performance, but weaker momentum, management volatility, and limited proof for named platform initiatives keep execution in focus. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is strong, around $770 million next quarter. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $700 million next quarter |
Free cash flow: $277.57M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $760 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 18, 2026277,570,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating margin near 22.5% | Nutanix grows revenue about 15% a year, with operating margin near 22.5%. | Improving | Operating margin falls below 20% next quarter | Operating margin: 9.24% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~22.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 20, 20269.244622 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We remain focused on delivering sustainable growth and improving profitability.”” ““We are pleased to raise our full year guidance and remain focused on driving sustainable growth and improving profitability.”” Revenue was $757.078 million in 2026-Q4. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows at least 15% year over year | Nutanix grows revenue about 15% a year, with operating margin near 22.5%. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% next year | Revenue: $757.078M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Target and observation units differ. Sep 18, 2026757,078,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We remain focused on delivering sustainable growth and improving profitability.”” ““We are pleased to raise our full year guidance and remain focused on driving sustainable growth and improving profitability.”” Revenue was $757.078 million in 2026-Q4. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.55 → $2.70 · observed estimates
$3.60B → $3.66B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.55 | $3,596,920,169 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.55 | $3,604,384,454 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.55 | $3,604,384,454 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.55 | $3,604,384,454 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.55 | $3,604,384,454 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.55 | $3,604,384,454 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.58 | $3,607,492,634 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.58 | $3,607,492,634 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.58 | $3,607,492,634 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.69 | $3,654,432,791 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.69 | $3,654,432,791 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.69 | $3,654,432,791 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.69 | $3,654,432,791 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.69 | $3,654,432,791 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.69 | $3,654,432,791 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.69 | $3,654,432,791 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.69 | $3,654,432,791 | 11 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.69 | $3,655,563,705 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.70 | $3,655,992,791 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.70 | $3,655,992,791 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.70 | $3,655,992,791 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.70 | $3,655,992,791 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.70 | $3,655,992,791 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.70 | $3,655,992,791 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.70 | $3,655,992,791 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.70 | $3,655,992,791 | 10 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.