Nutanix (NTNX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$58.55-8.08%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NTNX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
NTNX — President transition
Dated 2026-10-07
President and Chief Commercial Officer — Tarkan Maner: The departure of the President and Chief Commercial Officer is a significant loss of senior executive leadership, despite the subsequent advisory arrangement.
Why it matters: Nutanix reported $840.7 million in FY2026 and set an $850 million to $950 million range for FY2027. Falling short would miss its stated floor.
Worry ifFY2027 free cash flow is below $850 million.
Less concerning ifFY2027 free cash flow is at least $850 million and within or above the guided range.
Why it matters: Nutanix set a Q1 revenue range of $755 million to $765 million. A result below its floor would break that outlook.
Worry ifQ1 FY2027 revenue is below $755 million.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY2027 revenue is at least $755 million and within or above the guided range.
Why it matters: ARR rose 16% in Q4 FY2026. Keeping that pace would support Nutanix's growth focus.
Supportive ifReported ARR growth is 16% or higher year over year in the next results.
Worry ifReported ARR growth falls below 16% year over year in the next results.
Why it matters: Technology sector growth remains positive, but the trend is easing. Nutanix reported 12% revenue growth in FY2026, so slower growth would add to that sector concern.
Worry ifFY2027 revenue growth is below 12% year over year.
Less concerning ifFY2027 revenue growth is at least 12% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $527 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,247 loss on $10,000 · 52.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.