Nutanix (NTNX)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$68.06-0.03%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NTNX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NTNX — workforce reduction
Dated 2026-08-04
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On August 4, 2026, Nutanix, Inc. (the “Company”) announced a plan to reduce its global workforce by approximately 5%, following a review of its business structure. The workforce reduction is intended to streamline and realign the Company’s organizational structure, improve operational efficiency and agility, and reallocate resources toward strategic priorities and long-term growth objectives. The ultimate scope, timing and implementation of t…
Why it matters: A downward revision may show cash flow problems. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance revised down from $760M-$780M.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow guidance maintained or raised.
Why it matters: This will show if Nutanix can keep its revenue growth momentum. A drop below 10% signals a slowdown.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: The success of this plan will show how well Nutanix can improve efficiency.
Watch forThe company has cut jobs and reported cost savings. This shows the plan worked.
Also watch forThe job cuts did not bring the expected savings. There were no improvements in operations.
Why it matters: This shows how well Nutanix is managing costs. Lower growth could hurt future profitability.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 15% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth is above 15% compared to last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$159 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $550 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,758 loss on $10,000 · 57.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is key for Nutanix's growth and capital allocation plans. A decline could signal issues.
Worry ifFree cash flow in Q3 exceeds $197.2 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow in Q3 falls below $197.2 million.
Why it matters: Annual Recurring Revenue growth matters for subscription businesses. Slower growth can mean market issues.
Worry ifARR growth reported at or above 15% YoY for Q4.
Less concerning ifARR growth reported below 15% YoY for Q4.
Why it matters: Updates will show how Nutanix is managing its resources. Poor allocation could limit growth.
Watch forNew investments or partnerships will be announced.
Also watch forThere are no updates or bad news on capital allocation.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in demand and impact future growth expectations.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $680 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue reported above $690 million.
Why it matters: Supply chain problems may delay when revenue is recognized. This can affect growth and investor feelings.
Worry ifQ3 revenue shows no impact from supply chain issues.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue declines due to supply chain delays.
Why it matters: Nutanix is buying back shares. This shows they are confident in managing their money.
Watch forThey announced more share buybacks under the $750 million plan.
Also watch forNo updates or a pause in share repurchases.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show that management believes in the company's worth.
Supportive ifNutanix is buying back shares from the $779 million plan.
Worry ifIf there are no share buybacks, the program may be paused.
Why it matters: Supply chain delays could affect revenue timing and growth outlook.
Worry ifSupply chain issues lead to longer server lead times affecting revenue.
Less concerning ifNo big supply chain problems reported that affect revenue.
Why it matters: More buybacks show that management believes in the company's worth and future.
Supportive ifNews of large share buybacks over the current $779 million limit.
Worry ifNo new announcements of share repurchase activity or a pause in the program.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue target would show strong demand and growth momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at $725 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $680 million.
Why it matters: This guidance will show if Nutanix can maintain its revenue growth momentum after a strong Q4 FY2026.
Supportive ifQ1 FY2027 revenue guidance exceeds $765 million.
Worry ifQ1 FY2027 revenue guidance falls below $755 million.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if Nutanix can keep making more cash.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for FY2027 exceeds $950 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow for FY2027 falls below $850 million.