Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Natera Inc (NTRA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$363.76-6.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NTRA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin improves to 64%-66% in 2026 | Its gross margin is improving, guided at 64%-66%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 62% in FY26 | Gross margin: 64.46% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 64%-66%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202664.45553 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Generated a gross margin 1 of 64.5% in the second quarter of 2026, compared to a gross margin 1 of 63.4% in the second quarter of 2025.” “Financial Outlook Natera anticipates 2026 total revenue of $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion; 2026 gross margin 1 to be approximately 64% to 66%; selling, general and administrative costs to be approximately $1.125 billion to $1.225 billion; research and development costs to be $800 million to $900 million; and cash flow to be positive.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented, loss-making business, not yet a proven profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: revenue progress is encouraging, but recent performance has lagged its industry cohort and the latest quarter was missed.
The valuation is described as justified, with a modest premium versus peers and low confidence in the valuation model. The evidence points to some expectations for future opportunity, but does not show a large expectations gap; no fragility signals have fired.
Near term, revenue has grown and management raised its annual revenue guidance midpoint, while gross margin stayed within its stated range. R&D spending is within guidance, but margins and costs remain mixed, and erratic earnings surprises make execution worth watching.
The thesis depends on revenue growth continuing while gross margins remain stable and R&D costs stay within guidance. A guidance cut or weaker jobs data would add risk; continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NTRA’s long-term thesis has signs of operating progress, but profitability and consistent execution remain unproven. The evidence supports a watchful view, not a clear confirmation of the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Legal wins and regulatory approvals sustain market position | The company won a key legal case and gained regulatory approval in Japan, expanding its market. | Intact | Loss of key legal cases or regulatory approvals | Qualitative: Japan approval secured Japan approval and record Signatera volumes reinforce market position and adoption. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
R&D costs maintained between $750 million and $850 million in 2026 | A supporting condition in Natera Inc's published investment case. The stated target is $750M-$850M. | Intact | R&D costs exceed $850 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue reaches about $2.78 billion in 2026 | Natera is growing revenue fast, with guidance raised to about $2.78 billion in 2026. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $2.74 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $752.75M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.78B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026752,750,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Recent Financial Highlights • Generated total revenues of $752.8 million in the second quarter of 2026, compared to $546.6 million in the second quarter of 2025, an increase of 37.7%.” “• Raised 2026 annual revenue guidance by $100 million at the midpoint, from $2.74 billion - $2.82 billion to $2.85 billion - $2.91 billion.” Revenue was $752.750 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.30 → $-0.37 · observed estimates
$3.33B → $3.52B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,759 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.20 | $3,328,189,090 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.20 | $3,328,189,090 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.20 | $3,328,189,090 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.20 | $3,328,246,230 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.20 | $3,328,246,230 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.35 | $3,382,090,200 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.35 | $3,382,090,200 | 11 / 21 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.30 | $3,328,214,778 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.16 | $3,478,634,877 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.13 | $3,488,444,137 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.13 | $3,488,444,137 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.13 | $3,488,444,137 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.13 | $3,488,444,137 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.13 | $3,488,444,137 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.13 | $3,488,444,137 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.13 | $3,488,444,137 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.13 | $3,488,444,137 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.13 | $3,488,444,137 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.13 | $3,488,444,137 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.13 | $3,488,444,137 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.13 | $3,488,444,137 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.14 | $3,488,444,137 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.14 | $3,488,444,137 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.14 | $3,488,441,467 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.14 | $3,488,441,467 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.14 | $3,488,441,467 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.14 | $3,488,441,467 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.14 | $3,488,441,467 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.14 | $3,488,441,467 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.14 | $3,501,547,897 | 13 / 17 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.14 | $3,501,547,897 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.17 | $3,506,752,443 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.17 | $3,506,752,443 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.17 | $3,506,752,443 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.17 | $3,506,752,443 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.17 | $3,508,070,625 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.19 | $3,508,070,625 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.21 | $3,508,852,884 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.21 | $3,508,852,884 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.21 | $3,508,852,884 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.21 | $3,508,852,884 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.21 | $3,508,852,884 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.25 | $3,513,512,972 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.27 | $3,514,913,777 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.28 | $3,514,912,902 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.28 | $3,514,912,902 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.28 | $3,514,912,902 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.28 | $3,514,912,902 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.28 | $3,514,912,902 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.33 | $3,514,910,702 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.33 | $3,514,894,720 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.33 | $3,514,894,720 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.35 | $3,516,246,077 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.34 | $3,515,234,892 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.34 | $3,515,234,892 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.34 | $3,515,234,892 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.34 | $3,515,234,892 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.34 | $3,515,234,892 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.37 | $3,518,174,137 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.37 | $3,518,174,137 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.37 | $3,518,174,137 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.37 | $3,518,174,137 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.37 | $3,518,174,137 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.37 | $3,518,174,137 | 12 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.37 | $3,518,174,137 | 12 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 21 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.