Natera Inc (NTRA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$391.03+0.62%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NTRA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 25.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers
NTRA — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Natera, Inc. issued a press release announcing the results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2026 and provided a related investor presentation. A copy of the press release and a copy of the investor presentation are furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K and are incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the accompan…
Why it matters: Natera reported positive cash inflow in Q1 and a small cash increase in Q2. It still reports net losses.
Worry ifQ3 cash flow, using Natera's stated measure, is positive and cash on hand does not fall from the June 30 balance of $1.09 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash flow is negative, or cash on hand falls below the June 30 balance of $1.09 billion.
Why it matters: Natera's margin stayed near 65% in the first half. Higher costs could put that range at risk.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin is below 64%, or Natera lowers its 2026 gross margin range below 64%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin stays at 64% or higher, and Natera keeps its 64% to 66% range.
Why it matters: Natera raised its 2026 revenue range twice. The new range is $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grows year over year, and Natera keeps or raises its $2.85 billion to $2.91 billion 2026 revenue range.
Worry ifNatera cuts its 2026 revenue range below $2.85 billion or reports lower revenue than a year earlier.
Why it matters: Oncology test volume rose 57.2% in Q2. Another strong quarter would show that adoption is still growing.
Supportive ifQ3 oncology tests grow at least 50% year over year, with reported volume above the Q3 2025 level.
Worry ifQ3 oncology test growth falls below 50% year over year or volume drops from Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $427 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,820 loss on $10,000 · 28.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.