Natera Inc (NTRA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$328.18+0.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NTRA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NTRA — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Natera, Inc. issued a press release announcing the results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2026 and provided a related investor presentation. A copy of the press release and a copy of the investor presentation are furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit 99.2, respectively, to this Current Report on Form 8-K and are incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K and the accompan…
Why it matters: A better gross margin means better cost control. It also shows good operations.
Supportive ifGross margin is over 66%. This shows good cost control and pricing strength.
Worry ifGross margin drops below 64%, suggesting rising costs or pricing pressures.
Why it matters: If R&D costs exceed guidance, it could signal issues with cost management. This may impact future profitability.
Worry ifR&D costs reported above the guided range during the Q2 earnings call.
Less concerning ifR&D costs reported within or below the guided range during the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: Earnings results can show if the company is meeting its growth and cost targets.
Watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 20% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Another increase would show strong performance. It would also mean good market conditions.
Supportive ifManagement expects revenue in 2026 to be more than $2.91 billion.
Worry ifNo change in guidance shows possible growth challenges.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $386 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,820 loss on $10,000 · 28.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth speeds up, it could lift Natera's performance. This is key for overall health.
Watch forSector revenue growth rises above 10% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth slows below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Exceeding 1 million tests would show strong demand and support revenue growth expectations.
Supportive ifIn Q3, over 1 million tests were processed. This shows steady growth in use.
Worry ifIn Q3, tests processed were under 1 million. This points to lower demand.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that people still want Natera's tests. This backs up what management says.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue growth exceeds 35% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth falls below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: High growth in oncology tests shows strong market adoption and can drive future revenue.
Supportive ifOncology test volume growth exceeds 50% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifOncology test volume growth falls below 40% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Stable gross margins show good cost control. This helps the company make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin in Q3 remains around 64% or higher.
Worry ifGross margin in Q3 drops below 63%.
Why it matters: Keeping R&D costs in check is key. It helps the company stay healthy while growing.
Supportive ifR&D expenses in Q3 remain within the $800 million to $900 million range.
Worry ifR&D expenses exceed $900 million in Q3.