Northern Trust (NTRS)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-07-07
$181.39+0.14%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $181.39. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $181 NTRS trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median — but our blended $147 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Analysts target $170–$186. Note: our $147 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($170–$186). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $184 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$170.00 – $186.00 (median $179.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $179.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $231.62 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $460.04 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $48.51 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $122.31 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $50.27 | 18.6 | 2.71 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $116.12 | 1.7 | 69.62 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $120.88 | 13.8 | 8.73 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $177.15 | 18.6 | 9.55 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $130.44 | 3.0 | 44.03 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $168.86 | 17.7 | 9.55 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $82.01 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $158.45 | 16.6 | 9.55 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $179.08 | 18.6 | 9.65 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $80.78 | 18.6 | 4.35 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $130.15 | 1.7 | 78.03 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $183.84 | 13.8 | 13.28 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $329.51 | 18.6 | 17.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $167.62 | 3.0 | 56.58 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $314.08 | 17.7 | 17.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $294.72 | 16.6 | 17.76 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $110.83 | 18.6 | 5.97 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $140.42 | 1.7 | 84.19 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $243.13 | 13.8 | 17.56 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $388.07 | 18.6 | 20.92 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $197.40 | 3.0 | 66.64 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $369.90 | 17.7 | 20.92 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $347.09 | 16.6 | 20.92 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.