Northern Trust (NTRS)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$186.63-0.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NTRS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers
NTRS — debt issuance
Dated 2025-11-19
Other Events. On November 19, 2025, Northern Trust Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued $500,000,000 of its 4.150% Senior Notes due 2030 (the “ Senior Notes ”) and $750,000,000 of its 5.117% Fixed-to-Fixed Rate Subordinated Notes due 2040 (the “ Subordinated Notes ” and, together with the Senior Notes, the “ Notes ”) pursuant to an underwriting agreement, dated as of November 12, 2025, by and among the Company, BofA Securities, Inc., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., J.P. Morgan Securities LLC a…
Why it matters: Slower growth in assets under custody may hurt fee income and overall results.
Worry ifAssets under custody growth in Q3 is below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifAssets under custody growth in Q3 exceeds 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop shows expense management is not keeping up with revenue growth.
Worry ifOperating leverage is more than 700 basis points.
Less concerning ifOperating leverage is less than 700 basis points.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates impact net interest income. This affects overall profit and growth.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates in the July 29 meeting.
Also watch forFOMC keeps interest rates unchanged in the July 29 meeting.
Why it matters: A decline in assets under management could signal weakening client confidence and impact fees. This is crucial for revenue.
Worry ifAssets under management drop below $1.7 trillion in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifAssets under management stay above $1.8 trillion in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $257 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,237 loss on $10,000 · 12.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Net interest income is key for making money. Growth shows good management of interest rates.
Supportive ifNet interest income increases by more than 5% YoY in Q3.
Worry ifNet interest income growth is less than 5% YoY in Q3, signaling potential challenges.
Why it matters: A drop in pre-tax margin could signal rising costs or declining efficiency.
Worry ifPre-tax margin falls below 30% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifPre-tax margin remains above 32% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level would show continued strong growth and support management's focus on EPS growth.
Supportive ifQ3 diluted earnings per share reported above $4.50.
Worry ifQ3 diluted earnings per share reported below $4.00.
Why it matters: Earnings growth is a key priority. A drop below 10% could signal weakening momentum.
Worry ifQ2 earnings growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings growth reported above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it may indicate broader challenges. This could affect Northern Trust's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: The redemption may change the capital structure and financial flexibility. It could also affect how investors feel.
Watch forThe Series D Preferred Stock redemption will finish on October 1, 2026.
Also watch forDelays or issues arise in the Series D Preferred Stock redemption process.
Why it matters: Changes in credit loss provisions show shifts in credit quality. This impacts profits and risk.
Watch forProvision for credit losses remains negative or low in Q2 2026.
Also watch forProvision for credit losses rises sharply in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Fee growth is key to noninterest income. Continued increases would show strong demand for services.
Supportive ifTrust, Investment and Other Servicing Fees increase by more than 10% YoY in Q3.
Worry ifFees increase less than 10% YoY in Q3, suggesting weakening demand.
Why it matters: EPS growth is a key focus for management. A drop below 40% may signal weakening performance.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS growth below 40% compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 diluted EPS growth at or above 40% compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Management wants to increase noninterest income. Slower growth may show problems in making fees.
Worry ifNoninterest income grew less than 10% from last year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNoninterest income grew 10% or more from last year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth reflects overall business health. A drop below 10% may raise concerns about market conditions.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth below 10% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth at or above 10% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Assets under custody drive fee income. A significant drop could indicate client outflows or market issues.
Worry ifAssets under custody drop more than 5% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAssets under custody remain stable or grow in Q3 2026.