Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Northern Trust (NTRS)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-05
$171.39-3.72%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.77 → 12.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NTRS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS grows strongly, near $11.87 in FY26 | A primary condition in Northern Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >=11.87 USD per share. | Improving | EPS falls below $11.87 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $3.40 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=11.87 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20263.4 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a steady financial-services business with robust earnings quality, stable management, and low stated risk. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent performance is strong, but expense discipline remains a weak spot.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, with a modest expectations gap and valuation evidence aligned with the business setup. The priced-in signal is justified, and the snapshot shows low fragility, so it does not point to unusually concentrated expectations.
In the near term, recent earnings were strong, trust and servicing fees grew year over year, and management reported organic trust-fee growth across all three businesses. The One Northern Trust strategy is on track, but expenses also rose year over year despite reported positive operating leverage, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on continued trust-fee and organic client growth, along with better evidence that expense discipline is working. Near-term risks include a guidance cut or rate cuts, while continued strength from major financial-sector peers could support sector momentum.
The 1-to-3-year view remains intact, backed by strong recent performance and fee growth, but the expensive valuation and limited progress on expense reduction leave execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Northern Trust grows revenue 14% yearly. |
| Intact |
| Noninterest income growth falls below 9% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 9% yearly | Northern Trust grows revenue 14% yearly. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 9% next year | Revenue growth: 8.49% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=9% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 29, 20268.494666 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.57 → $12.97 · observed estimates
$9.40B → $9.50B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.57 | $9,402,572,678 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $12.53 | $9,437,537,990 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $12.53 | $9,437,537,990 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $12.57 | $9,405,373,165 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.52 | $9,440,898,580 | 13 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.52 | $9,440,898,580 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.52 | $9,440,898,580 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $12.52 | $9,440,898,580 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $12.55 | $9,440,898,580 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $12.55 | $9,440,898,580 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.55 | $9,440,898,580 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.51 | $9,405,373,165 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.54 | $9,425,040,966 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.54 | $9,425,040,966 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.54 | $9,425,040,966 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.54 | $9,425,040,966 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.54 | $9,425,040,966 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.54 | $9,425,040,966 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.54 | $9,425,040,966 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.54 | $9,425,040,966 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.54 | $9,425,040,966 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.54 | $9,425,679,049 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.54 | $9,425,679,049 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.54 | $9,425,679,049 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.54 | $9,425,679,049 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.54 | $9,425,679,049 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.54 | $9,425,679,049 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.54 | $9,425,679,049 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.54 | $9,425,679,049 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.54 | $9,425,679,049 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.54 | $9,425,679,049 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.54 | $9,425,679,049 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.55 | $9,428,543,138 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.59 | $9,444,334,804 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.59 | $9,444,861,740 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.59 | $9,444,861,740 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.59 | $9,444,861,740 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.59 | $9,444,861,740 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.69 | $9,458,204,056 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.69 | $9,458,204,056 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.76 | $9,476,783,805 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.76 | $9,476,783,805 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.76 | $9,491,700,472 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.77 | $9,487,837,458 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.78 | $9,497,558,250 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.80 | $9,489,361,461 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.80 | $9,489,361,461 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.80 | $9,489,361,461 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.80 | $9,489,361,461 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.80 | $9,489,361,461 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.80 | $9,489,361,461 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.80 | $9,489,361,461 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.80 | $9,489,361,461 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.80 | $9,489,361,461 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.80 | $9,489,361,461 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.80 | $9,489,361,461 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.80 | $9,489,361,461 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.80 | $9,489,361,461 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.80 | $9,489,361,461 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.92 | $9,519,006,930 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.92 | $9,510,852,628 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.95 | $9,510,852,628 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.95 | $9,510,852,628 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.95 | $9,510,852,628 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.95 | $9,510,852,628 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.95 | $9,510,852,628 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.95 | $9,510,852,628 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.95 | $9,510,852,628 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.97 | $9,501,277,706 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.97 | $9,501,277,706 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.97 | $9,501,277,706 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.97 | $9,501,277,706 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.97 | $9,501,277,706 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-11-05 | $12.97 | $9,501,277,706 | 10 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 12 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.