Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Nucor (NUE)
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-04
$245.68-8.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
19.68 → 21.29 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NUE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return capital of at least $250M via dividends and buybacks in 2026-Q1 | The company returns capital steadily with $0.56 dividend per share and $250M in buybacks. | Intact | Capital returned falls below $250M in any quarter through 2026-Q1 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical steel business with a growth-investment component, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is weakened this week: recent financial performance has slipped within its industry, despite two recent earnings beats and project milestones.
Valuation is slightly above peers, while the expectations gap is modestly negative, suggesting expectations are not clearly demanding. The pricing signal is tagged justified, with low fragility; valuation also rose notably in the recent-change measure, so the setup has become less neutral.
Near term, recent earnings beats, higher year-over-year quarterly sales, new mill and line milestones, and capital returns support execution, while management’s delivery record remains mixed. The stated miss risk is low, but the recent drop in relative performance and a history of a deep miss remain reasons for caution.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on whether investment projects ramp up and whether management avoids guidance cuts. Sector support could persist if bellwethers keep beating and raising guidance, but misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken that tailwind.
Over a 1 to 3 year view, Nucor has concrete growth projects and a supportive sector backdrop, but its recent relative performance has weakened the thesis and execution remains mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Supported by robust demand across key end markets, Nucor has generated approximately $2.7 billion of free cash flow and returned nearly $1.4 billion to shareholders through the first nine months of the year.” “Throughout a period of capital investment, Nucor continues to have the strongest balance sheet of any major steel producer in North America and has returned nearly $1 billion to shareholders year-to-date, representing more than 70% of net earnings through the third quarter.””
Net earnings attributable to Nucor stockholders >= $743M in 2026-Q1 | Nucor is growing earnings strongly across steel segments. | Intact | Net earnings fall below $156M in any quarter through 2026-Q1 | Net income: $1.319B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 743 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 26, 20261,319,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Pre-operating costs related to growth projects decline to $108M in 2026-Q1 | A supporting condition in Nucor's published investment case. The stated target is <= 108 million USD. | Under Pressure | Pre-operating costs rise above $170M in any quarter through 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We also achieved important milestones in advancing our growth strategy, including the first heat at our West Virginia sheet mill in September and the recent start-up of our second galvanizing line at Nucor Steel Berkeley.” “As these and other recently completed projects ramp up, they are beginning to deliver meaningful earnings contributions and we believe they will play an important role in strengthening our earnings power over time.” Revenue was $10.397 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Steel mills segment earnings >= $1,128M in 2026-Q1 | Steel pricing outlook and demand support earnings growth. | Intact | Steel mills segment earnings fall below $231M in any quarter through 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$17.42 → $21.29 · observed estimates
$39.67B → $43.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $17.42 | $39,673,639,255 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $17.38 | $39,611,430,090 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $17.38 | $39,611,430,090 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $17.38 | $39,611,430,090 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $17.52 | $39,824,817,294 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $17.60 | $39,781,206,690 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $18.15 | $40,830,592,789 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $18.14 | $40,712,980,370 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $18.15 | $40,830,592,789 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $18.23 | $40,812,610,350 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $18.23 | $40,812,610,350 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $18.23 | $40,812,610,350 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $18.83 | $40,518,824,630 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $18.26 | $40,928,838,955 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $18.26 | $40,928,838,955 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $18.83 | $40,518,824,630 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $18.83 | $40,518,824,630 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $18.26 | $40,928,838,955 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $18.26 | $40,928,838,955 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $18.83 | $40,518,824,630 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $18.26 | $40,928,838,955 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $18.26 | $40,928,838,955 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $18.26 | $40,928,838,955 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $18.26 | $40,928,838,955 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $18.26 | $40,928,838,955 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $18.26 | $40,928,838,955 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $18.95 | $40,612,454,882 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $18.95 | $40,612,454,882 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $18.95 | $40,612,454,882 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $18.95 | $40,612,454,882 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $18.95 | $40,612,454,882 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $18.93 | $40,650,839,497 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $18.93 | $40,650,839,497 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $18.93 | $40,650,839,497 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $18.93 | $40,650,839,497 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $18.93 | $40,650,839,497 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $18.93 | $40,650,839,497 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $18.93 | $40,650,839,497 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $18.98 | $40,834,159,455 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $18.98 | $40,834,159,455 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $18.98 | $40,834,159,455 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $18.98 | $40,834,159,455 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $18.98 | $40,834,159,455 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $18.98 | $40,834,159,455 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $18.98 | $40,834,159,455 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $18.98 | $40,834,159,455 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $18.98 | $40,834,159,455 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $19.17 | $40,982,771,418 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $19.17 | $40,982,771,418 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $19.34 | $41,078,982,478 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $19.34 | $41,078,982,478 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $19.34 | $41,078,982,478 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $19.64 | $41,254,317,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $19.64 | $41,254,317,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $19.64 | $41,254,317,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $19.64 | $41,254,317,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $19.64 | $41,254,317,745 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $19.50 | $41,277,332,478 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $19.50 | $41,277,332,478 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $19.50 | $41,277,332,478 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $19.50 | $41,277,332,478 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $19.50 | $41,277,332,478 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $19.50 | $41,277,332,478 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $19.51 | $41,280,206,355 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $19.51 | $41,280,206,355 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $19.51 | $41,280,206,355 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $19.59 | $41,280,206,355 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $19.59 | $41,280,206,355 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $19.59 | $41,280,206,355 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $19.59 | $41,280,206,355 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $19.68 | $41,656,039,689 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $19.68 | $41,656,039,689 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $19.68 | $41,656,039,689 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $19.77 | $41,837,816,689 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $19.77 | $41,837,816,689 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $19.77 | $41,837,816,689 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $19.77 | $41,837,816,689 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $19.77 | $41,837,816,689 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $20.25 | $42,119,314,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $20.25 | $42,119,314,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $20.25 | $42,119,314,566 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $20.44 | $42,253,118,733 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $20.44 | $42,253,118,733 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $20.44 | $42,253,118,733 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $20.44 | $42,253,118,733 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $20.56 | $42,362,281,795 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $20.56 | $42,362,281,795 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $20.72 | $42,362,281,795 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $20.72 | $42,362,281,795 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $20.72 | $42,362,281,795 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $20.72 | $42,362,281,795 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $20.72 | $42,362,281,795 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $20.72 | $42,362,281,795 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $20.72 | $42,362,281,795 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $20.72 | $42,362,281,795 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $20.74 | $42,548,461,706 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $21.01 | $42,700,535,254 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $21.07 | $42,724,444,345 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $21.20 | $42,927,989,800 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $21.20 | $42,927,989,800 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $21.20 | $42,927,989,800 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $21.20 | $43,125,999,158 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $21.29 | $43,125,990,650 | 10 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.