Nucor (NUE)
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
$261.07-0.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsSteelSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NUE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
NUE — officer change
Dated 2026-06-22
CEO — Mr. Needham: Mr. Needham is retiring from his role with the company.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show that management believes in the company. They also give money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifNucor announces a share repurchase of at least $250 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo announcements of share buybacks or cuts to the buyback program.
Why it matters: If Nucor's Q3 earnings surpass this amount, it shows strong growth momentum. This would confirm the positive trend in earnings across all segments.
Supportive ifNucor stockholders made over $1.28 billion in Q3 earnings.
Worry ifQ3 earnings fall below $1.28 billion.
Why it matters: Stable pricing in the steel mills segment would indicate healthy demand and support earnings growth.
Supportive ifAverage selling prices in the steel mills segment remain stable or increase in Q2.
Worry ifAverage selling prices in the steel mills segment decline in Q2.
Why it matters: CPI data affects how much people spend and how much construction happens. This drives steel demand.
Watch forCPI data shows an increase above 0.5% month over month.
Also watch forCPI data shows a decrease or stagnation below 0.2% month over month.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $305 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,843 loss on $10,000 · 18.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Steel prices affect Nucor's earnings and its position in the market.
Watch forSteel prices increase by more than 5% in Q2 2026.
Also watch forSteel prices decrease by more than 5% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level would confirm continued growth across all segments. It shows strong demand and effective capital investments.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 earnings reported above $870 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings reported below $870 million.
Why it matters: Earnings per share results will show if Nucor is improving its profits. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ1 EPS exceeds $2.00, indicating strong earnings growth.
Worry ifQ1 EPS falls below $1.50, showing continued earnings weakness.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect how the company runs and its plans.
Watch forNucor shares news about a new executive or a change in leadership.
Also watch forNo new news about executive changes.
Why it matters: A big decline would show pressure on margins and problems managing costs.
Worry ifRaw materials segment earnings decrease by more than 15% compared to Q2.
Less concerning ifRaw materials earnings stay stable or increase compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Strong earnings growth shows Nucor can keep growing and follow its plan.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 earnings increase across all segments compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 earnings decline or remain flat compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in trade rules can affect imports and prices. This impacts Nucor's ability to compete.
Watch forNew trade rules are announced that help domestic steel production.
Also watch forNew trade policies are announced that increase imports or reduce tariffs.
Why it matters: Strong liquidity is important for funding growth. It helps stability in uncertain markets.
Supportive ifCash and equivalents remain above $2.5 billion at the end of Q3.
Worry ifCash and equivalents are below $2.5 billion. This raises concerns about financial health.
Why it matters: Successful ramp-ups confirm Nucor's growth plan and can boost earnings.
Supportive ifManagement says they will successfully ramp up at least two big projects in Q2 2026.
Worry ifManagement reports delays or problems with big project ramp-ups in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show trust in the company's value. It also shows a promise to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifTotal share buybacks in 2026 are over $500 million.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases in 2026 are below $500 million.
Why it matters: Earnings growth in all segments shows Nucor's strong demand and execution of its growth strategy.
Supportive ifNucor's earnings in Q2 2026 are higher than in Q1 2026 for all segments.
Worry ifEarnings in Q2 2026 decline or do not increase across all segments.
Why it matters: Earnings growth across all segments shows Nucor's strong market position. Higher earnings would confirm ongoing momentum.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings are over $1.28 billion. This shows growth in steel mill shipments and prices.
Worry ifQ3 earnings fall below $1.28 billion, suggesting a slowdown in growth momentum.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show a strong commitment to returning capital. This shows confidence in financial health.
Supportive ifShare repurchases are over $500 million in Q3. This confirms a strong capital allocation strategy.
Worry ifShare repurchases are below $250 million in Q3. This may raise concerns about cash flow or market conditions.
Why it matters: Strong growth in the steel mill segment is crucial for overall earnings. It reflects market demand and pricing power.
Supportive ifSteel mill segment earnings grow more than 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifSteel mill segment earnings grow less than 5% year over year in Q3, indicating potential market weakness.
Why it matters: Changes in the Producer Price Index can impact raw material costs and pricing power for Nucor.
Watch forThe Producer Price Index is up. This suggests rising costs that may affect Nucor's margins.
Also watch forThe Producer Price Index is down. This indicates a possible easing of cost pressures.