NVR, Inc. (NVR)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6298.85-1.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NVR
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6,299 NVR trades at 16× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median — but our blended $5,045 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $7,180 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $2996.61 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $3421.72 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $3232.15 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $5977.44 | 16.1 | 371.56 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $6034.62 |
| 15.3 |
| 395.29 |
| ntm analyst |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $2777.81 | 0.8 | 3383.71 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $3352.17 | 8.7 | 385.59 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $2355.95 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $6102.15 | 15.8 | 385.59 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $5919.65 | 15.1 | 391.61 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $3582.48 | 16.1 | 222.69 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $6813.13 | 15.3 | 446.29 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $3201.59 | 0.8 | 3899.92 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $3879.83 | 8.7 | 446.29 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $7062.70 | 15.8 | 446.29 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $2546.61 | 16.1 | 158.30 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $7472.65 | 15.3 | 489.49 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $3511.50 | 0.8 | 4277.44 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $4255.41 | 8.7 | 489.49 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $7746.38 | 15.8 | 489.49 | Analyst | medium |