Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
NVR, Inc. (NVR)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6414.18+0.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
395.00 → 354.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NVR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cancellation rate stays at or below 14% in 2026-Q1 | A supporting condition in NVR, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <=14% in 2026-Q1. | Under Pressure | Cancellation rate rises above 14% in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 7 supplied quarters. The cancellation rate was 21% in 2026-Q3 versus 19% in 2025-Q3; it improved in the first two quarters of 2026 but rose in Q3. The latest comparison shows a declining trajectory on this recurring priority. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a homebuilding business with a multi-year thesis tied to financial performance and housing-sector conditions. The thesis is currently intact, while recent operating signals are mixed and confidence in the assessment is medium.
Valuation is slightly above peers, while the expectations gap is small and the evidence describes expectations as aligned with the business setup. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility rather than a broad combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Recent financial performance remains in the top half of the industry, but NVR has reported three consecutive earnings misses. In 2026-Q3, new orders were lower than a year earlier, gross margin fell from 21.0% to 18.3%, and cancellations rose from 19% to 21%, pointing to near-term execution pressure.
The multi-year view hinges on whether management can improve new orders, protect margins from higher lot costs and pricing pressure, and reduce cancellations. Sector bellwether results and guidance are key signals, while materially slower GDP growth could add pressure because the sector is growth-sensitive.
The long-term thesis remains intact, supported by relatively strong industry performance, but the latest results show limited progress on recurring management priorities. The next evidence to watch is whether execution improves and sector conditions remain supportive. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Gross profit margin stays near 19.6% in 2026-Q1 | Profit margin is pressured but stable near 20%. | Under Pressure | Gross profit margin falls below 19.6% in 2026-Q1 | Gross margin: 20.08% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=19.6% in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 22, 202620.078088 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 7 supplied quarters. Homebuilding gross profit margin was 18.3% in 2026-Q3 versus 21.0% in 2025-Q3, with management again citing higher lot costs and pricing pressure. The margin decline across the comparison indicates declining results, not progress on this recurring priority. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
New home orders reach at least 5,700 units in 2026-Q1 | NVR is growing new home orders by 7%. | Under Pressure | New home orders fall below 5,345 units in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 7 of 7 supplied quarters. New orders were 4,391 units in 2026-Q3 versus 4,735 units in 2025-Q3; management reported increases in 2026-Q1 and Q2, followed by a decline in Q3. The latest results show limited progress on this recurring priority. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$415.71 → $354.55 · observed estimates
$10.18B → $9.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $415.71 | $10,175,245,129 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $409.55 | $9,875,517,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $409.55 | $9,875,517,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $409.55 | $9,875,517,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $409.55 | $10,163,849,766 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $409.55 | $9,811,767,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $409.55 | $10,163,849,766 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $411.62 | $9,811,767,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $409.55 | $10,163,849,766 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $411.62 | $9,811,767,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $411.62 | $9,811,767,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $411.62 | $9,811,767,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $411.62 | $9,811,767,500 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $411.62 | $10,130,291,471 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $409.46 | $10,137,874,805 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $409.46 | $10,137,874,805 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $409.46 | $10,137,874,805 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $409.46 | $10,137,874,805 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $409.46 | $10,137,874,805 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $409.46 | $10,137,874,805 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $400.62 | $10,004,153,921 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $400.62 | $10,004,153,921 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $400.62 | $10,004,153,921 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $400.62 | $10,004,153,921 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $400.62 | $10,004,153,921 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $400.62 | $10,004,153,921 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $400.62 | $10,004,153,921 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $400.62 | $10,004,153,921 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $400.62 | $10,004,153,921 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $395.00 | $9,923,797,546 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $395.00 | $9,923,797,546 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $395.00 | $9,923,797,546 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $395.00 | $9,923,797,546 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $395.00 | $9,923,797,546 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $395.00 | $9,923,797,546 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $391.99 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $391.99 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $391.99 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $391.99 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $391.99 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $391.99 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $392.74 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $392.74 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $392.74 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $392.74 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $392.74 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $392.74 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $392.74 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $392.74 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $392.74 | $9,840,415,443 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $380.33 | $9,605,215,444 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $371.12 | $9,405,135,232 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $371.12 | $9,405,135,232 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $368.70 | $9,345,512,819 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $368.70 | $9,345,512,819 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $354.55 | $9,154,398,533 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $354.55 | $9,154,398,533 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $354.55 | $9,154,398,533 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $354.55 | $9,154,398,533 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $354.55 | $9,154,398,533 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $354.55 | $9,154,398,533 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $354.55 | $9,154,398,533 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $354.55 | $9,154,398,533 | 5 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.