NVR, Inc. (NVR)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6298.85-1.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Gross profit margin stays near 19.6% in 2026-Q1: metric not reported.
NVR is growing new home orders by 7%. It cut cancellations to 14%. The price is cheap compared to peers. Profit margin is pressured but stable near 20%.
Revenue fell 22% in the last quarter. Profit margin dropped 2.3 points. The housing market could weaken further. This could hurt earnings and orders.
The price is about 4% above our fair value near $6400. Analysts expect almost no revenue growth. Our fair value is 13.5% below the Street median.
Breaks if: Cancellation rate rises above 14% in 2026-Q1
Breaks if: Gross profit margin falls below 19.6% in 2026-Q1
Breaks if: New home orders fall below 5,345 units in 2026-Q1
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
NVR represents a durable compounder in the housing sector, but it faces challenges from sector headwinds and recent earnings misses. The current thesis state is stable, with management focused on increasing new home orders and reducing cancellation rates.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of fragility, reflecting weak execution quality but not fully accounting for the current challenges. Valuation is stretched compared to peers, indicating that expectations are somewhat elevated.
Fundamentals may show mixed results in the near term, as management is on track with new home orders but struggling with gross profit margins and cancellation rates. The recent financial performance has been strong, but the company has missed earnings expectations in recent quarters.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like DHI, PHM, and LEN, as their earnings results could influence NVR's trajectory. Additionally, inflation trends and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will be crucial factors to monitor.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has raised concerns about future growth. This may hinder new home orders, which are crucial for the company's performance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Overall, NVR's multi-year view is shaped by its ability to navigate sector challenges while focusing on key management priorities. Not investment advice.