NVR
NVR, Inc.NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, NVR has a mixed analyst scoring with a composite score of -0.7 and a medium confidence level of 68.7. The score is influenced by several factors, including macroeconomic conditions such as growth, rates, and inflation, which are currently unfavorable. The sector score is low at 12.3, while quality and valuation scores are relatively stronger at 74.2 and 65.5, respectively. This analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $100.09 → $90.80 (-9.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 4 cut, 6 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 29% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 11.0% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 35%; 252d 27%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −31%. Bad day move −3%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLY) — 0.04 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 54/100, drawdown 39/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol —.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
NVR NVR, Inc. | -0.7 | fair | elevated |
AMZN Amazon | +16 | full | moderate |
TSLA Tesla, Inc. | +0.4 | expensive | elevated |
HD Home Depot (The) | +14 | full | moderate |
CVNA Carvana | +14 | — | high |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
- If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-2.9 pts
- If inflation state reverses from -0.34 (negative) to +0.34 (positive)-2.7 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-2216d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 22, 2026, NVR, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933,…
earnings preannouncementnegativescore 54 - 2026-01-283mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 28, 2026, NVR, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter and year to date periods ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the…
earnings preannouncementpositivescore 7
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.