NVR, Inc. (NVR)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6298.85-1.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NVR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 24.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
NVR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-23
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 23, 2026, NVR, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter and year to date periods ended June 30, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securit…
Why it matters: Another earnings miss shows the business still faces challenges. The last quarter had a big miss.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report shows net income below $236.5 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings report shows net income above $236.5 million.
Why it matters: The Consumer Discretionary sector is showing signs of change. Revenue growth trends will impact NVR's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median for two consecutive months.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: New home orders are key for future revenue. Growth signals demand recovery.
Supportive ifQ3 new home orders increase year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifQ3 new home orders decline year over year or grow less than 5%.
Why it matters: Lower loan production shows challenges in the mortgage banking area.
Worry ifMortgage closed loan production for Q2 is below $1.05 billion, showing weakness.
Less concerning ifMortgage closed loan production for Q2 is over $1.05 billion. This shows strength.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $261 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,488 loss on $10,000 · 34.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better margins can help make more money. Lower margins show rising costs.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves to above 19.5% in Q3.
Worry ifGross profit margin declines further below 19.2% in Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level show recovery and growth after the Q1 earnings miss.
Supportive ifNet income in Q2 exceeds $198.4 million.
Worry ifNet income in Q2 is below $198.4 million.
Why it matters: Stable loan production is vital for revenue. Declines could signal market challenges.
Supportive ifMortgage banking loan production stays the same or goes up in Q3.
Worry ifMortgage banking loan production declines further in Q3.
Why it matters: A higher cancellation rate shows weaker buyer confidence. This could hurt future orders.
Worry ifCancellation rates rise above 20% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCancellation rates stayed below 15% in Q2.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing. They also show market trends.
Watch forEarnings per share exceeds $83.96 reported in Q2 2026.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $67.76 reported in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how well the company is doing. They also reflect market conditions.
Watch forEarnings are better than what analysts expected. This shows the company is recovering.
Also watch forEarnings are below expectations. This shows the company is facing ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in revenue shows lower demand and pricing problems in homebuilding.
Worry ifIn Q2, homebuilding revenues fell more than 20% compared to Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifHomebuilding revenues fell less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A lower cancellation rate shows buyers are more confident. It also means demand is steady.
Supportive ifCancellation rate drops below 14% in Q3.
Worry ifCancellation rate rises above 15% in Q3.