NVR, Inc. (NVR)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6376.82+5.84%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NVR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NVR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 22, 2026, NVR, Inc. issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter and year to date periods ended September 30, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The information contained in this Current Report shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or incorporated by reference in any filing under the…
Why it matters: NVR cited affordability strain and weak consumer mood as causes of price pressure. The Nov. 17 retail sales report offers a near-term demand check.
Watch forThe Nov. 17 report shows retail sales rising from the prior month, which would support firmer consumer demand.
Also watch forThe Nov. 17 report shows retail sales falling from the prior month, adding to demand concerns.
Why it matters: Q3 backlog grew 10% by units, even as new orders fell. More growth could support later home sales.
Supportive ifNext reported backlog is above 10,121 units and above $4.59 billion.
Worry ifNext reported backlog is below 10,121 units or below $4.59 billion.
Why it matters: Closed loan production fell year over year in each 2026 quarter. A further drop would add pressure to this business.
Worry ifQ4 mortgage closed loan production is below $1.38 billion.
Less concerning ifQ4 production is at least $1.38 billion and mortgage banking income stays above $35.0 million.
Why it matters: New orders fell 7% in Q3 after gains in Q1 and Q2. Another drop would point to weaker buyer demand.
Worry ifQ4 net new orders are below the 2025-Q4 total, or the cancellation rate rises above 21%.
Less concerning ifQ4 net new orders exceed the 2025-Q4 total and cancellations fall below 21%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$128 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $261 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,129 loss on $10,000 · 31.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.