Newell Brands (NWL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.11+0.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NWL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 2.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NWL — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-19
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth above under
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Newell is doing and what to expect.
Watch forQ2 earnings beat expectations by more than 10%.
Also watch forQ2 earnings miss expectations by more than 10%.
Why it matters: Updates on tariffs will show how they affect costs and profits. This matters to investors.
Watch forManagement gives a clear update. Tariff impacts drop by more than $0.07 to normalized EPS.
Also watch forManagement says there is no change in tariff impacts from earlier guidance.
Why it matters: Going above this margin shows good efficiency and cost control.
Supportive ifOperating margin reported above 10.2% for the full year 2026.
Worry ifOperating margin reported below 9.5% for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows that cost management works. It helps make more money.
Supportive ifIn Q2, the company made more than $34 million in operating income.
Worry ifOperating income is less than $34 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$236 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $491 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,133 loss on $10,000 · 51.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Good cash flow from operations means better financial health. It shows management is doing well.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations was over $0 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative.
Why it matters: Finishing this task would help with cash flow. It would also aid in paying off debt and keeping finances stable.
Supportive ifThe $500 million senior notes offering is set to finish as planned.
Worry ifThere are delays or failure to complete the $500 million senior notes offering.
Why it matters: This growth range shows if Newell Brands can maintain its sales recovery trend. It confirms the turnaround strategy is working.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 net sales growth reported between 2% and 3%.
Worry ifQ3 2026 net sales growth falls below 2%.
Why it matters: Finishing this offering is key for paying off debt. It helps cash flow and stability.
Supportive ifThe $600 million debt offering will close on August 19, 2026.
Worry ifThe offering fails to close or terms worsen significantly.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is a key priority for Newell Brands. It shows better cost management.
Supportive ifQ2 operating income increases year over year by more than 5%.
Worry ifQ2 operating income declines year over year or stays flat.
Why it matters: This guidance shows if Newell Brands can maintain its recent growth momentum. Strong EPS signals ongoing recovery.
Supportive ifNormalized EPS guidance for Q3 falls within the range of $0.18 to $0.20.
Worry ifNormalized EPS guidance for Q3 drops below $0.18.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend is key for investor trust. It shows financial strength.
Supportive ifThe announcement shows the dividend payout will stay the same or go up.
Worry ifThe announcement shows a dividend cut or stop.
Why it matters: Higher EPS means management thinks profits will get better. It shows better overall results.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 had normalized EPS above $0.19.
Worry ifQ2 2026 had normalized EPS below $0.16.
Why it matters: A change in the dividend may show changes in cash flow or financial health.
Watch forDividend payout remains at $0.07 per share.
Also watch forDividend payout is reduced from $0.07 per share.
Why it matters: This margin range shows if Newell Brands is managing costs well. It shows progress in making more money.
Supportive ifOperating margin was between 9.5% and 10.2% for Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating margin was below 9.5% for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This cash flow target shows if Newell Brands can improve its financial health. It indicates effective management of costs and operations.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow reported at or above $400 million for 2026.
Worry ifOperating cash flow was below $350 million for 2026.