Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
News Corp (Class B) (NWS)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.39+4.15%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.54 → 1.54 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NWS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Execute $1 billion share buyback program | The company returns cash through a $1 billion share buyback program. | Intact | Buyback program is suspended or materially reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NWS is a media and digital-services business with growth engines in Digital Real Estate, Dow Jones, and Book Publishing. Its multi-year view is intact, with strong recent financial performance, but fragile earnings quality and volatile management make the thesis less dependable.
The valuation carries a durable premium of 1.61 versus peers, while the expectations gap is 0.39, suggesting meaningful expectations are already reflected. The evidence flags the premium as unjustified because of expensive valuation and weak execution quality, although confidence in that assessment is medium.
Near-term financial performance is strong: fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter revenue was $2.34 billion and Total Segment EBITDA was $423 million, while annual Digital Real Estate Services revenue rose versus the prior year. Buybacks are on track, but recent company quality fell, and earnings have been erratic; the near-term miss risk is described as low.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued growth in the core engines and delivery on Dow Jones digital subscriptions, advertising, and professional information. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while Federal Reserve rate cuts or continued strong results from sector peers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, NWS has strong recent results and substantive progress in parts of its growth strategy, but its premium valuation and weaker execution quality leave the thesis vulnerable to a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share are expected to rise to about $1.29 in the next fiscal year. |
| Improving |
| EPS falls below $1.29 in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $0.33 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $1.29. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20260.33 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Profit margins remain stable near current levels | Profit margins stay stable near current levels. | Intact | Profit margins decline significantly below current levels | Net margin: 14.93% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near current levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Sep 23, 202614.933676 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth near 6% annually | A primary condition in News Corp (Class B)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% in FY27 | Revenue growth: 10.81% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202610.810811 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.48 → $1.54 · observed estimates
$9.71B → $9.78B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.48 | $9,707,517,058 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.48 | $9,707,517,058 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.48 | $9,707,517,058 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.48 | $9,707,517,058 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.48 | $9,707,517,058 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.48 | $9,707,517,058 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.49 | $9,701,189,785 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.49 | $9,701,189,785 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.49 | $9,701,189,785 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.49 | $9,701,189,785 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.49 | $9,701,189,785 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.49 | $9,701,189,785 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.49 | $9,701,189,785 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.49 | $9,701,189,785 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.53 | $9,758,809,371 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.47 | $9,656,742,490 | 4 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.50 | $9,715,877,270 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.53 | $9,758,809,371 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.53 | $9,758,809,371 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.53 | $9,758,809,371 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.53 | $9,758,809,371 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.53 | $9,758,809,371 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.53 | $9,758,809,371 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.53 | $9,758,809,371 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.53 | $9,758,809,371 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.53 | $9,758,809,371 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.54 | $9,789,830,932 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.54 | $9,789,830,932 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.54 | $9,783,194,568 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.54 | $9,767,678,354 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.54 | $9,767,678,354 | 2 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.54 | $9,767,678,354 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.54 | $9,767,678,354 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.54 | $9,767,678,354 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.54 | $9,767,678,354 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.54 | $9,767,678,354 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.54 | $9,767,678,354 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.54 | $9,767,678,354 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.54 | $9,777,969,187 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.54 | $9,777,969,187 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.54 | $9,777,969,187 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.54 | $9,777,969,187 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.54 | $9,777,969,187 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.54 | $9,777,969,187 | 3 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.