Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-31 · fmp
$2.27 → $2.27 · observed estimates
Quanex Building Products Corporation (NX)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.92-7.35%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA reaches $240M to $245M in fiscal 2026 | Quanex aims for $240M to $245M adjusted EBITDA in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $240 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Overall, on a consolidated basis, we estimate we will generate net sales of $1.84 billion to $1.87 billion, which we expect will yield approximately $240 million to $245 million in Adjusted EBITDA* in fiscal 2026.” Operating income was $46.490 million in 2026-Q3. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-31 · fmp
$2.27 → $2.27 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
NX is a growth-oriented industrial business, but the evidence does not establish a durable compounder yet. Its long-term thesis is intact this month: recent financial performance is strong, though earnings quality and management are rated neutral and risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence points to NX being cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is close to neutral. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not suggest that unusually high expectations are the main source of thesis risk.
Near term, recent earnings beats and revenue growth support continued progress, but the full fiscal 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance has not yet been confirmed by the reported results. Revenue progress is consistent with guidance, while trailing Adjusted EBITDA remains below its target range; the sector backdrop is also a headwind.
The multi-year view hinges on NX delivering its fiscal 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA goals without cutting guidance. Near term, guidance changes are a key risk, while results and outlook from industrial bellwethers JCI, MAS, and CSL could signal whether sector support strengthens or fades.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, NX has a supported but execution-dependent long-term thesis: recent results are strong, yet profitability goals remain unproven and sector conditions may weigh on progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS reaches at least $1.65 in fiscal 2026 | The company beat Q2 earnings with $0.25 EPS. | Intact | EPS falls below $1.65 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 1.8% in next 12 months | A primary condition in Quanex Building Products Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= 1.8% YoY. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 1.8% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.92B → $1.92B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | $2.27 | $1,924,050,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.27 | $1,924,050,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.27 | $1,924,050,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.27 | $1,924,050,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.