Quanex Building Products Corporation (NX)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.93+22.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Quanex aims for $240M to $245M adjusted EBITDA in 2026. Sales are expected near $1.85B next fiscal year. The company beat Q2 earnings with $0.25 EPS. It manages inflation well and keeps steady guidance.
EBITDA fell from $63M to $44M year over year. Revenue growth is slow at 2.2%. Analysts cut earnings estimates recently. The stock is down 21% from its high.
The price is about 35% below our fair value near $26. Analysts expect about 2% revenue growth. Our model sees risks in earnings and EBITDA recovery.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $240 million in FY26
Target Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $240 million to $245 million for fiscal year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. LTM Adjusted EBITDA was $215.2 million as of 2026-Q3, below the fiscal 2026 guidance range of $240 million to $245 million. Management continues to emphasize this target, indicating progress but not yet fully delivering the guided Adjusted EBITDA.
“We expect Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $240 million to $245 million in fiscal 2026.”
“We expect Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $240 million to $245 million in fiscal 2026.”
“We expect Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $240 million to $245 million in fiscal 2026.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.65 in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 1.8% next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a turnaround investment with a focus on improving fundamentals. The current thesis state indicates that NX is under pressure but has potential for recovery if management meets its guidance.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of execution quality, suggesting some fragility. NX is seen as cheap compared to its peers, but there is an expectations gap that could impact future performance.
Management is working towards achieving revenue and Adjusted EBITDA targets for fiscal 2026, which could stabilize the business. However, recent earnings performance has been below industry peers, indicating that execution will be critical.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers like JCI, MAS, and CSL. Any changes in their earnings guidance could significantly impact NX's trajectory.
In the next 1 to 3 years, NX's performance will depend on its execution and sector dynamics. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Company momentum fell by 27.1 points (from -20.0 to -47.1) after fresh earnings.
Yes, our read has strengthened. Management guided for Q4 2026 revenue growth of 2% to 3%. They also expect adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of 50 to 75 basis points. The latest earnings beat supports these positive expectations.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.