Quanex Building Products Corporation (NX)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$22.93+22.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NX — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-27
Regulation FD Disclosure. On August 27, 2026, the Registrant issued a press release announcing that the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.08 per share on the Company’s common stock, payable September 30, 2026, to shareholders of record on September 15, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Easing inflation would help improve margins and stabilize pricing. This is crucial for Quanex to address the current price versus cost imbalance.
Supportive ifConsumer Price Index shows a decrease in inflation rates in Q3 2026.
Worry ifConsumer Price Index shows an increase in inflation rates in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An improvement in gross margin would show progress in addressing the price versus cost imbalance.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin exceeds 26%.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin remains at or below 25.5%.
Why it matters: Inflation changes costs and pricing. This affects profits and cash flow.
Worry ifGross margin percentage is under 25% in Q3. This shows margin pressure.
Less concerning ifGross margin percentage is stable or above 26%. This suggests good cost management.
Why it matters: Reaching this target is key for Quanex's profits and shows how well it operates. It also shows recovery from recent profit issues.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA of $240 million or higher for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is still under $240 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this sales target supports the company's goal of achieving $1.84B to $1.87B for fiscal 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales reported at or above $462 million.
Worry ifQ3 net sales fall below $450 million.
Why it matters: Better consumer confidence could mean more demand for Quanex's products.
Supportive ifWatch for the consumer confidence index to go above 100.
Worry ifWatch for the consumer confidence index to fall below 90.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is stable. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.08 per share.
Worry ifThe Board reduces the quarterly cash dividend below $0.08 per share.
Why it matters: Achieving this revenue target is key for Quanex's fiscal 2026 performance. It shows how well the company is managing sales amid market challenges.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue growth of at least 10% year over year, supporting the annual guidance.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year, indicating struggles to meet guidance.
Why it matters: This target shows how well the company runs its operations. Meeting it shows good cost control.
Supportive ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA is at least $60 million. This shows progress toward the yearly goal.
Worry ifQ4 Adjusted EBITDA is below $55 million. This suggests there are ongoing margin problems.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show strong cash flow management. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases were over $5 million in Q4. This shows strong cash generation.
Worry ifNo share repurchases or less than $2 million in Q4, signaling cash flow concerns.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$218 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $516 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,779 loss on $10,000 · 37.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.