Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR)
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.44+5.17%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NXDR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve high single-digit Adj. EBITDA margin in 2026 | Profit margins are expected to improve to high single digits. | Improving | Adj. EBITDA margin falls below 5% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a loss-making growth story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent performance has not freshly broken, but it sits below its industry cohort.
NXDR is valued at a premium to peers, with a modest expectations gap and low confidence in the valuation model. The pricing evidence flags that this premium is not justified, given expensive valuation and weak execution quality.
Near term, revenue and margins have improved: second-quarter revenue rose 15% year over year, and Adjusted EBITDA margin reached 13%. Management raised full-year revenue growth guidance to the low teens, while its approximately 10% full-year margin goal remains mixed; a guidance cut on the next call is a key risk.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on whether revenue growth continues and margin gains support management’s full-year goals. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while Fed rate cuts or continued strong results from sector bellwethers could provide a favorable backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year view remains fragile: operational progress is visible, but the premium valuation, elevated risk, and recent delisting notice leave important execution questions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY revenue growth in FY26. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 |
Revenue growth: 14.53% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY revenue growth in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202614.534589 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Nextdoor's highlighted metrics for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 include: • Revenue of $75 million increased 15% year-over-year.” “The combination of accelerating engagement, durable revenue growth, and disciplined expense management gives us the confidence to raise our full-year outlook.”” Revenue was $74.554 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Implement $100M share repurchase program | A supporting condition in Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Repurchase up to $100 million shares in 2026. | Intact | Repurchase program is canceled or materially reduced | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.06 → $-0.04 · observed estimates
$0.31B → $0.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.06 | $313,605,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.06 | $313,605,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.06 | $313,605,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.06 | $313,605,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.06 | $313,605,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.06 | $313,605,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.06 | $313,605,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.06 | $313,605,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.05 | $313,568,798 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.05 | $313,568,798 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.06 | $313,605,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.05 | $313,568,798 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.06 | $313,605,800 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.05 | $313,568,798 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.04 | $321,856,598 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.05 | $324,354,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.05 | $324,354,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.05 | $324,354,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.04 | $324,354,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.04 | $321,856,598 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.04 | $321,856,598 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.04 | $321,856,598 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.04 | $321,856,598 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.04 | $321,856,598 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.04 | $321,856,598 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.04 | $321,856,598 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.04 | $327,159,459 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.