Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. (NXDR)
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.24-0.44%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · NXDR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 218.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 204.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
NXDR — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-04
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the exhibit hereto are being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it been deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: The $100 million share buyback shows that management believes in the stock's value.
Supportive ifThey announced buying back more shares beyond the first 17 million.
Worry ifNo updates or a halt in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Nextdoor can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forNextdoor reports a smaller loss or some revenue growth from the last quarter.
Also watch forNextdoor reports a larger loss or more revenue decline from the last quarter.
Why it matters: Sustaining or improving Platform WAU growth is key to revenue and engagement.
Watch forPlatform WAU was at or above 23 million. This shows user engagement growth.
Also watch forPlatform WAU was below 22 million. This shows possible user engagement decline.
Why it matters: This range indicates if Nextdoor is on track for 10% revenue growth in 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $78M, confirming strong growth momentum.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $76M. This shows possible growth challenges.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $429 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,090 loss on $10,000 · 50.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Ongoing repurchases can signal management's confidence in the stock. It may also support share price.
Supportive ifManagement says more share buybacks will happen under the $100 million program.
Worry ifNo more share buybacks are announced or done.
Why it matters: Updates on the $100 million repurchase program could signal confidence in the stock.
Supportive ifThey announced more shares repurchased. This shows strong capital use.
Worry ifNo updates on the share repurchase program. This suggests worries about stock value.
Why it matters: If the sector shows signs of recovery, it may benefit Nextdoor's growth. This is important given the current headwinds.
Watch forSector revenue growth turns positive for the next quarter.
Also watch forSector revenue growth continues to decline for the next quarter.
Why it matters: This margin shows good cost control and revenue growth.
Supportive ifFull-year Adjusted EBITDA margin was at or above 10%. This shows margin growth.
Worry ifFull-year Adjusted EBITDA margin was below 10%. This shows margin pressures.