Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
New York Times Company (NYT)
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$65.57-1.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesPublishingSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.12 → 3.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for NYT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Digital-only subscription revenue grows at least 16% year-over-year | The New York Times grows digital subscription revenue by over 16% yearly. | Broken | digital subscription revenue growth falls below 9.5% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a subscription-led media business with a durable-growth profile, not a turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact: recent results are strong and management is delivering on its digital growth and profit priorities.
NYT is valued at a premium to peers, reflecting expectations that its durable subscription growth can continue. The evidence describes the valuation as stretched, with an expectations gap, while fragility is low rather than broadly concentrated.
Near term, digital-only subscription revenue and operating profit have grown, and the company has reported two recent earnings beats. Management’s main digital and profit priorities are on track, but the sector backdrop is a headwind and the industry has a history of earnings misses.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued digital subscriber and revenue growth, and on management maintaining its progress on operating profit. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easier rates or stronger results and guidance from sector peers would be favorable signals.
For a 1 to 3 year view, NYT’s operating progress supports an intact long-term thesis, but its premium valuation leaves less room for execution to weaken. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “6 Outlook Below is the Company’s guidance for revenues and adjusted operating costs for the fourth quarter of 2026 compared with the fourth quarter of 2025.” “6 Outlook Below is the Company’s guidance for revenues and adjusted operating costs for the first quarter of 2026 compared with the first quarter of 2025.” Revenue was $768.538 million in 2026-Q3.
Dividend per share grows to at least $0.23 | Dividend per share increased to $0.23, showing strong capital return. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.18 next year | Dividend per share: $0.23 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$0.23 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20260.23 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating profit increases to at least $90.6 million | Operating profit rose 54.5% to $90.6 million in the latest quarter. | Broken | operating profit falls below $58.6 million in any quarter next year | Operating income: $121.938M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$90.6 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026121,938,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “6 Outlook Below is the Company’s guidance for revenues and adjusted operating costs for the fourth quarter of 2026 compared with the fourth quarter of 2025.” “6 Outlook Below is the Company’s guidance for revenues and adjusted operating costs for the first quarter of 2026 compared with the first quarter of 2025.” Operating income was $121.938 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Total revenue grows at least 9.5% annually | A primary condition in New York Times Company's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.5% YoY growth. | Intact | total revenue growth falls below 7% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “6 Outlook Below is the Company’s guidance for revenues and adjusted operating costs for the fourth quarter of 2026 compared with the fourth quarter of 2025.” “6 Outlook Below is the Company’s guidance for revenues and adjusted operating costs for the first quarter of 2026 compared with the first quarter of 2025.” Revenue was $768.538 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.20 → $3.11 · observed estimates
$3.32B → $3.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.20 | $3,319,267,596 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.22 | $3,319,262,210 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.22 | $3,319,262,210 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.22 | $3,319,262,210 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.20 | $3,319,267,596 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.20 | $3,319,267,596 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.22 | $3,319,262,210 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.20 | $3,319,267,596 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.20 | $3,319,267,596 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.22 | $3,319,262,210 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.22 | $3,319,262,210 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.20 | $3,319,267,596 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.20 | $3,319,267,596 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.20 | $3,319,267,596 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.12 | $3,326,145,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.12 | $3,326,145,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.12 | $3,326,106,980 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.12 | $3,326,145,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.12 | $3,326,145,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.12 | $3,326,145,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.12 | $3,326,145,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.12 | $3,326,145,729 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.12 | $3,326,145,729 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.12 | $3,326,145,729 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.12 | $3,326,145,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.12 | $3,326,145,729 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.10 | $3,324,906,114 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.12 | $3,333,763,257 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.11 | $3,333,905,515 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.