Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$39.86-1.39%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.75 → 3.76 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OBT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS remains near or above $0.93 annually | A supporting condition in Orange County Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.93 EPS for FY 2025 and subsequent periods. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $0.93 for FY 2025 or later | Diluted EPS: $1.02 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.93 EPS for FY 2025 and subsequent periods. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 20261.02 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OBT is a smaller-cap regional bank with a relationship-led growth profile, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact, with core deposits and loans growing, though execution and financial performance are rated neutral.
The evidence rates OBT as cheap, while its valuation still carries a durable premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be ahead of what the current evidence supports; overall, priced-in fragility is low and the valuation assessment is medium confidence.
Over the multi-year view, continued deposit and loan growth could support the core banking business: deposits rose from $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion, and loans from $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion over the year. Average deposit cost also declined from 1.12% to 0.96%, while execution on footprint expansion and acquisitions remains hard to verify. Near term, a guidance cut is a key risk, and the smaller-cap profile and past deep miss add caution despite a quiet 22% miss-risk estimate.
The thesis hinges on whether OBT can keep growing deposits and relationship-based loans while managing funding costs. A guidance cut would weaken the near-term case, while falling interest rates could weigh on the Financials sector; continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis looks intact but rests on continued core growth and steady execution, with valuation rated cheap yet still at a premium to peers. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net income growth sustaining above $11M | Net income rose from $7.2M to $11.3M in 6 quarters. | Intact | net income falls below $11M in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Net income: $13.659M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $11M net income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 202613,659,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain steady revenue growth above $34M per quarter | A primary condition in Orange County Bancorp, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $34M revenue per quarter. | Intact | quarterly revenue falls below $34M after 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $34.55M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $34M revenue per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 202634,550,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.83 → $3.76 · observed estimates
$0.15B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.83 | $145,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.83 | $145,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.83 | $145,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.83 | $145,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.83 | $145,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.83 | $145,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.83 | $145,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.83 | $145,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.83 | $145,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.77 | $142,550,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.75 | $141,966,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.75 | $142,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.79 | $143,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.79 | $143,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.79 | $143,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.79 | $143,266,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.76 | $143,233,333 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.