Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$40.42+2.28%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OBT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OBT — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-21
Other Events Orange County Bancorp, Inc., parent company of Orange Bank & Trust Company and Orange Investment Advisors, Inc. today announced a declaration of a $0.18 cash dividend per share of its common stock. The dividend will be paid on September 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on September 4, 2026. A press release announcing the declaration of the cash dividend is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Loan growth adds interest income, but large payoffs kept the loan book near $2.0 billion. New growth would test the stated pipeline strength.
Supportive ifQuarter-end loans rise above $2.0 billion, with reported growth from new loans rather than fewer payoffs.
Worry ifQuarter-end loans stay at or below $2.0 billion. Or management says payoffs keep offsetting new lending.
Why it matters: Management plans to leave residential lending by year end. The sales would add liquidity and reduce interest-rate risk.
Watch forA filing or earnings release reports residential loan sales. These bring the portfolio to zero by year end.
Also watch forA later filing or earnings release shows residential loans remain after year end. Or management delays the exit goal.
Why it matters: The bank booked a smaller credit loss provision in Q3 than a year earlier. Higher costs could cut into earnings growth.
Worry ifQuarterly credit loss provision tops $3.9 million, the Q3 2025 level.
Less concerning ifQuarterly provision stays below $809,000 and the allowance stays at or below 1.38% of loans.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $255 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,373 loss on $10,000 · 13.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.