Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$38.72+0.83%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OBT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
OBT — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-21
Other Events Orange County Bancorp, Inc., parent company of Orange Bank & Trust Company and Orange Investment Advisors, Inc. today announced a declaration of a $0.18 cash dividend per share of its common stock. The dividend will be paid on September 15, 2026 to shareholders of record on September 4, 2026. A press release announcing the declaration of the cash dividend is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Sustained revenue growth is vital for the company's long-term success. A slowdown could be concerning.
Worry ifRevenue grows over 10% each year. This shows strong performance.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth drops below 5% year over year, signaling potential issues.
Why it matters: An increase shows trust in ongoing profits and cash flow.
Supportive ifManagement plans to raise the dividend to over $0.18 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend from the current $0.18 per share in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Continued strong net income growth supports management's goal to grow earnings per share.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $14.1 million, which is a 30% increase from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 net income growth is less than 30%, falling below $14.1 million.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is key for maintaining operations and growth. It shows financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations is over $10 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations is under $10 million in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $279 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,373 loss on $10,000 · 13.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slower growth in core deposits may mean trouble in getting low-cost funding. This can hurt net interest margin.
Worry ifCore deposits grow less than 5% YoY in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCore deposits grow at or above 5% YoY in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A change in the dividend may show shifts in how money is used or financial health.
Watch forThe company declares a cash dividend greater than $0.18 per share in Q3 2026.
Also watch forThe company suspends or reduces the cash dividend in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong deposit growth helps lower funding costs. It also supports financial health.
Supportive ifTotal deposits grow more than 5.2% year over year, exceeding $2.4 billion.
Worry ifTotal deposits grow less than 5.2% year over year, failing to reach $2.4 billion.
Why it matters: Earnings from Wealth Management need to stay steady or grow. This is key for the business.
Watch forWealth Management earnings increase year over year in Q3.
Also watch forWealth Management earnings decline year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Dividend updates show that management wants to give money back to shareholders. This changes how investors feel.
Watch forA new dividend increase above $0.18 per share is announced.
Also watch forNo change in dividend policy or a decrease in the dividend amount.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends affect overall sector performance. A drop signals potential weakness.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could indicate broader issues in the business or sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth is reported below 5% year over year in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above 5% year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Slower deposit growth may mean customers feel less confident. It could also mean more competition.
Worry ifTotal deposits grew less than 1% from last quarter.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits growth at or above 1% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is important for running the business. It helps keep dividends strong.
Supportive ifCash from operations shows steady growth over $15 million.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $5 million.
Why it matters: Net income growth is key to showing ongoing financial strength. A drop below 20% may signal issues.
Worry ifQ2 net income growth below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income growth at or above 20% year over year.