Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Owens Corning (OC)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$124.26-2.77%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.91 → 10.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Return $2 billion to shareholders over 2025-2026 | The company aims to return $2 billion to shareholders by end of 2026. | Intact | Fails to return at least $1.5 billion by mid-2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Cash Returned to Shareholders • Owens Corning remains committed to returning $2 billion of cash to shareholders over 2025 and 2026 through dividends and share repurchases.” “Cash Returned to Shareholders • Owens Corning returned $1.0 billion to shareholders through cash dividends and share repurchases in 2025, supporting its commitment to return $2.0 billion of cash to shareholders by the end of 2026.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround story as Owens Corning shifts its portfolio towards branded building products. The current thesis state is mixed, with some progress in strategic priorities but challenges in recent financial performance.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, suggesting that investors are not overly optimistic about future performance. Valuation is seen as cheap compared to peers, but there is a premium indicating some expectations for improvement.
Fundamentals are likely to show resilient performance, although recent results indicate some margin pressure. The company is on track with its capital return commitment, but the overall financial performance has been neutral, reflecting mixed execution on growth and value creation.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like JCI, MAS, and CSL, which could influence OC's momentum. Additionally, any cuts to guidance could negatively impact sentiment and expectations.
In the next 1 to 3 years, Owens Corning's success will depend on its ability to execute its strategic priorities while navigating sector challenges. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Gross margin near 21% next quarter | It targets revenue near $2.65 billion and gross margin around 21% next quarter. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 20% next quarter | Gross margin: 24.71% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~21%. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 4, 202624.708718 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Owens Corning completed the sale of its glass reinforcements business on April 30, 2026, advancing the company’s strategy to operate as a residential-focused building products leader in North America and Europe and enhancing its capital efficiency.” ““With the sale of our glass reinforcements business complete, we are now well positioned to operate as a more integrated company and unlock additional cost efficiencies that can be reinvested to accelerate our growth as a branded building products leader.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Complete portfolio shift to branded building products | Owens Corning is shifting to branded building products in North America and Europe. | Intact | Portfolio shift progress stalls below 50% by end 2026 | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Owens Corning completed the sale of its glass reinforcements business on April 30, 2026, advancing the company’s strategy to operate as a residential-focused building products leader in North America and Europe and enhancing its capital efficiency.” ““With the sale of our glass reinforcements business complete, we are now well positioned to operate as a more integrated company and unlock additional cost efficiencies that can be reinvested to accelerate our growth as a branded building products leader.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue near $2.65 billion next quarter | It targets revenue near $2.65 billion and gross margin around 21% next quarter. | Intact | Revenue falls below $2.5 billion next quarter | Revenue: $2.489B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.65B. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 4, 20262,489,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Owens Corning completed the sale of its glass reinforcements business on April 30, 2026, advancing the company’s strategy to operate as a residential-focused building products leader in North America and Europe and enhancing its capital efficiency.” ““With the sale of our glass reinforcements business complete, we are now well positioned to operate as a more integrated company and unlock additional cost efficiencies that can be reinvested to accelerate our growth as a branded building products leader.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.78 → $10.88 · observed estimates
$10.26B → $10.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.78 | $10,255,136,197 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.78 | $10,254,602,860 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.78 | $10,254,602,864 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.78 | $10,254,602,860 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.78 | $10,254,602,864 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.78 | $10,254,602,860 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.78 | $10,254,602,860 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.78 | $10,254,602,864 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.78 | $10,254,602,864 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.78 | $10,254,602,860 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.78 | $10,254,602,864 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.78 | $10,254,602,860 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.78 | $10,254,602,864 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.78 | $10,254,602,864 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.97 | $10,316,374,064 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.97 | $10,316,374,064 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.96 | $10,331,991,230 | 16 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.97 | $10,316,374,064 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $12.06 | $10,336,108,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $12.06 | $10,336,108,350 | 17 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.97 | $10,316,374,064 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.97 | $10,316,374,064 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.97 | $10,316,374,064 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.97 | $10,316,374,064 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.97 | $10,316,374,064 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.97 | $10,316,374,064 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.06 | $10,336,095,363 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.06 | $10,336,095,363 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.06 | $10,336,095,363 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.06 | $10,336,095,363 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.06 | $10,336,095,363 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.06 | $10,336,095,363 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.01 | $10,334,464,403 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.01 | $10,334,298,178 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.01 | $10,334,298,178 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.01 | $10,334,298,178 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.01 | $10,334,298,178 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.01 | $10,334,298,178 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.01 | $10,334,298,178 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.01 | $10,334,298,178 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.01 | $10,334,307,853 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.01 | $10,334,307,853 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.01 | $10,334,307,853 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.01 | $10,334,307,853 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.01 | $10,334,307,853 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.01 | $10,334,307,853 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.01 | $10,334,307,853 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.01 | $10,334,307,853 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.01 | $10,334,307,853 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.01 | $10,334,307,853 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.98 | $10,327,621,128 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.98 | $10,327,621,128 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.91 | $10,306,971,128 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.91 | $10,306,971,128 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.91 | $10,306,971,128 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.91 | $10,306,971,128 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.91 | $10,306,971,128 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.91 | $10,306,971,128 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.81 | $10,296,325,767 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.58 | $10,250,198,741 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.38 | $10,213,434,035 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.32 | $10,193,081,094 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.32 | $10,193,081,094 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.32 | $10,193,081,094 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.19 | $10,170,130,488 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.10 | $10,159,718,723 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.01 | $10,159,718,723 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.01 | $10,159,718,723 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.01 | $10,159,718,723 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.95 | $10,152,062,558 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.95 | $10,152,062,558 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.91 | $10,137,474,323 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.91 | $10,137,474,323 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.91 | $10,137,474,323 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.91 | $10,137,474,323 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.91 | $10,137,474,323 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.91 | $10,137,474,323 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.91 | $10,137,474,323 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.91 | $10,137,474,323 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.86 | $10,121,624,088 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.86 | $10,121,624,088 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.86 | $10,121,624,088 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.88 | $10,121,624,088 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.88 | $10,121,624,088 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.88 | $10,121,624,088 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.88 | $10,121,624,088 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.88 | $10,121,624,088 | 10 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.