Optical Cable Corp (OCC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$11.21-6.39%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OCC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 71.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
OCC — earnings in line
Dated 2026-09-11
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On September 9, 2026, Optical Cable Corporation issued a press release announcing its third quarter of fiscal year 2026 financial results. Also on September 9, 2026, Optical Cable Corporation held an earnings call. The press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and the transcript for the earnings call is attached as Exhibit 99.2.
Why it matters: Backlog rose from $7.3 million in October 2025 to $13.5 million in July 2026. A further rise would support the sales outlook.
Supportive ifThe next reported backlog is above $13.5 million.
Worry ifThe next reported backlog falls below $10.4 million, the January 2026 level.
Why it matters: The next results will test whether Q3 sales growth and margin gains continued. The sector trend is easing, which adds a reason to track results closely.
Watch forQ4 sales grow at least 20% year over year and gross margin stays at or above 36%.
Also watch forQ4 sales grow less than 10% year over year or gross margin falls below 32%.
Why it matters: Q3 sales rose 22.0%, led by enterprise, data center, and specialty markets. Another strong quarter would show that demand is holding.
Supportive ifIn the next results, sales rise at least 20% year over year, with growth in enterprise or data center markets.
Worry ifSales growth falls below 10% year over year, or enterprise and data center sales both decline.
Why it matters: Sales outside the U.S. rose 28.8% in Q3 and 45.3% in Q2. Slower growth could weaken this source of expansion.
Watch forSales outside the U.S. grow at least 20% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forSales outside the U.S. are flat or decline year over year in the next reported quarter.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$349 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,090 loss on $10,000 · 10.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,838 loss on $10,000 · 58.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q3 gross margin rose to 37.4% as higher volume helped plant costs. A drop would weaken evidence that this gain can last.
Watch forThe next quarter's gross margin is at least 36%, with gross profit rising year over year.
Also watch forThe next quarter's gross margin falls below 32% or gross profit falls year over year.