Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
One Gas (OGS)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
$82.22+1.47%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.04 → 5.01 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OGS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures of $800 million in 2026 | It plans $800 million in capital spending this year. | Intact | Capital expenditures fall below $700 million in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $173.502M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $800 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026173,502,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OGS is a utility investment with a steady capital program and dividend, alongside sensitivity to interest rates and sector conditions. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and management execution is assessed as volatile.
The valuation evidence is mixed: OGS is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a 0.71 premium versus peers and an expectations gap of -0.15. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually stretched expectations.
Near-term fundamentals have been strong: management raised 2026 earnings guidance, and net income and earnings per share increased year over year in reported quarters. The 2026 capital investment plan and quarterly dividend have remained steady, but the outlook bears watching because earnings surprises are trending down and OGS has had a deep miss in its recent history.
The multi-year thesis depends in part on management sustaining the raised guidance; a reversal and guidance cut would weaken credibility. Near-term sector support could improve if the Fed cuts rates or utility peers continue to beat earnings and raise guidance, while the recent debt issuance and capital allocation event add a point to monitor.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the business setup remains supported by strong recent results and a stable investment plan, but confidence is medium and guidance delivery is a key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Capital investments, including asset removal costs, are still expected to be approximately $800 million in 2026, primarily targeted for system integrity and replacement projects.” “Capital investments for extensions to new customers are expected to be approximately $230 million of the $800 million.”
Quarterly dividend of $0.68 per share | The company maintains a quarterly dividend of 68 cents per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.65 per quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS near $4.7 in 2026 | The company maintains a quarterly dividend of 68 cents per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $4.5 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.49 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $4.65 and $4.77. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20260.49 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue near $3 billion in 2026 | One Gas keeps steady revenue near $3 billion in 2026. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $2.9 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $391.313M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.98 billion total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026391,313,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.02 → $5.01 · observed estimates
$2.56B → $2.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.02 | $2,563,793,410 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.02 | $2,563,750,910 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.02 | $2,563,750,910 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.02 | $2,563,750,910 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.02 | $2,563,750,910 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.02 | $2,563,750,910 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.02 | $2,563,750,910 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.02 | $2,563,750,910 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.02 | $2,563,793,781 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.02 | $2,563,750,910 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.02 | $2,563,793,781 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.02 | $2,563,793,781 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.02 | $2,563,793,781 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.02 | $2,563,750,910 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.03 | $2,544,892,140 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.03 | $2,563,793,410 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.03 | $2,563,793,410 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.03 | $2,563,793,410 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.05 | $2,566,120,610 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.03 | $2,544,892,140 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.03 | $2,544,892,140 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.03 | $2,544,892,140 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.03 | $2,544,892,140 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.03 | $2,544,892,140 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.03 | $2,544,892,140 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.03 | $2,544,892,140 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.05 | $2,553,710,054 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.05 | $2,553,710,054 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.05 | $2,553,710,054 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.05 | $2,553,710,054 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.05 | $2,553,710,054 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.05 | $2,553,710,054 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.05 | $2,553,710,054 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.05 | $2,553,710,054 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.05 | $2,553,710,054 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.05 | $2,553,710,054 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.05 | $2,553,710,054 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.05 | $2,553,710,054 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.05 | $2,553,710,054 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.05 | $2,554,596,777 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.06 | $2,549,965,263 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.06 | $2,549,965,263 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.06 | $2,549,965,263 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.06 | $2,549,965,263 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.06 | $2,549,965,263 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.05 | $2,548,108,121 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.05 | $2,548,108,121 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.05 | $2,548,108,121 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.05 | $2,548,108,121 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.05 | $2,548,108,121 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.05 | $2,548,108,121 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.04 | $2,579,594,605 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.04 | $2,579,594,605 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.04 | $2,579,594,605 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.04 | $2,579,594,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.04 | $2,579,594,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.04 | $2,579,594,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.04 | $2,579,594,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.04 | $2,579,594,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.03 | $2,580,719,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.03 | $2,580,719,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.03 | $2,580,719,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.03 | $2,580,719,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.03 | $2,580,719,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.03 | $2,580,719,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.03 | $2,580,719,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.03 | $2,580,719,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.03 | $2,580,719,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.02 | $2,580,594,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.02 | $2,580,594,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.02 | $2,580,269,605 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.01 | $2,578,126,843 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.01 | $2,577,751,843 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.01 | $2,577,751,843 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.01 | $2,578,001,843 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.99 | $2,569,576,958 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.99 | $2,569,576,958 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.99 | $2,569,576,958 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.99 | $2,569,576,958 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.99 | $2,569,576,958 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.99 | $2,569,576,958 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.99 | $2,569,576,958 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.99 | $2,569,576,958 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.99 | $2,569,576,958 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.99 | $2,569,576,958 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.01 | $2,565,827,220 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.