One Gas (OGS)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
$79.86-0.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OGS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OGS — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-13
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Underwriting Agreement On August 11, 2026, ONE Gas, Inc. (“ONE Gas”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc., RBC Capital Markets, LLC and Truist Securities, Inc., as representatives of the underwriters named therein (the “Underwriters”), with respect to the issuance and sale by ONE Gas of $375,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.45% Senior Notes due 2036 (the “Notes”). The Underwriting…
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It also shows commitment to shareholder returns.
Supportive ifThe board declares a quarterly dividend of $0.68 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe board reduces the quarterly dividend below $0.68 per share.
Why it matters: Weather can greatly impact revenue. Knowing this helps with future guidance.
Worry ifQ3 results show that weather normalization helps reduce revenue loss.
Less concerning ifQ3 results show a big revenue drop due to bad weather.
Why it matters: Progress on capital investments is key to OGS's growth and service expansion.
Supportive ifOGS says capital spending is on track or over $800 million for 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending is much lower than the $800 million goal.
Why it matters: This law could help ONE Gas make more money. It allows higher fees for infrastructure.
Supportive ifONE Gas implements the new surcharge of $1.35 per month for residential customers.
Worry ifThe company does not add the surcharge. It may also face delays from regulators.
Why it matters: This bill could enhance revenue recovery mechanisms for One Gas in Kansas.
Supportive ifThe bill's success will help recover infrastructure costs.
Worry ifThere are major delays or pushback on the bill.
Why it matters: This law may help OGS recover costs. This could change future earnings.
Supportive ifOGS expects more money from infrastructure investments because of the new law.
Worry ifRevenue recovery does not improve even with the new law.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this target would confirm the raised earnings guidance for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted net income reported at or above $78 million.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted net income is below $78 million.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend payout shows financial health. It shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.68 per share for Q2 2026.
Worry ifDividend payout decreases from $0.68 per share in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Progress on capital investments is key for growth and keeping infrastructure strong.
Supportive ifCapital spending was over $200 million in the second quarter. This shows strong investment.
Worry ifCapital spending was under $200 million in the second quarter. This shows slow investment.
Why it matters: Progress on capital investments is key for growth. It also helps keep service quality high.
Supportive ifCapital spending was $200 million or more in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCapital spending drops below $200 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if ONE Gas is on track with its financial guidance for the year.
Watch forQ2 2026 net income reported between $294 million and $302 million.
Also watch forQ2 2026 net income falls below $294 million.
Why it matters: Affirming guidance shows confidence in future performance. It gives investors trust in the company's path.
Supportive ifThe company confirms its financial guidance for 2026 during the Q2 earnings call.
Worry ifThe company revises down its financial guidance for 2026 during the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for One Gas. It may improve investor sentiment.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up again, reaching over 5% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth keeps slowing down, staying below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $201 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,654 loss on $10,000 · 16.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.