One Gas (OGS)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
$82.22+1.47%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated GasSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OGS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OGS — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-02
Regulation FD Disclosure On November 2, 2026, we announced our results of operations for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, raised 2026 adjusted financial guidance, and declared a cash dividend of 68 cents per share of common stock. The news release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: ONE Gas declared this payment in both reported quarters. A cut would mark a change in its stated dividend pattern.
Worry ifThe board declares another dividend of $0.68 per share for the quarter.
Less concerning ifThe board cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.68 per share or skips a payment.
Why it matters: ONE Gas raised its 2026 adjusted earnings view to the upper half of its range. Q3 results test that stronger view.
Supportive ifOn Nov. 2, ONE Gas reports 2026 adjusted net income at or above $310 million, within its $306 million to $314 million range.
Worry ifONE Gas reports adjusted net income below $306 million, or cuts its 2026 range.
Why it matters: The plan funds system safety work and new customer links. A large change could signal a shift in spending or funding needs.
Watch forONE Gas keeps 2026 capital spending near $800 million, with about $230 million for new customer links.
Also watch forONE Gas cuts or raises the $800 million plan by more than 10%, or materially changes the $230 million customer-link plan.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $195 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,094 loss on $10,000 · 20.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.