O-I Glass, Inc. (OI)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.14+1.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Adjusted EPS recovers to guidance range: EPS $0.09 vs $1.00 target.
O-I Glass aims to improve profits through its Fit to Win cost savings program. The company targets $1.0 to $1.5 EPS in 2026 and $50 to $150 million free cash flow. It also manages debt with a $500 million issuance to refinance obligations. These moves support a recovery from recent losses.
O-I Glass faces ongoing earnings pressure from market shocks and cost challenges. The recent EPS miss and guidance cut show risks to profitability. Debt levels remain elevated, and cost savings may not offset headwinds fully.
The stock trades about 35% below our fair value near $15, reflecting cautious views. Analysts expect modest 2% revenue growth. Our fair value is 10% above the Street median, indicating some upside if turnaround succeeds.
Breaks if: failure to refinance $500 million debt by 2026-Q1
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.00 in FY26
Breaks if: cost savings fall below $275 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment thesis is characterized as a turnaround situation. OI has been struggling with losses and weak financial performance, but management is actively working on operational improvements and cost savings.
The market seems to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that it views OI as relatively cheap compared to peers. However, the current valuation reflects justified concerns about the company's ongoing losses and weak performance.
Fundamentals may remain weak in the near term, especially given the company's history of earnings misses. Management's focus on cost savings and debt management is a positive, but recent performance in the Europe segment raises concerns.
The thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to improve performance in the Europe segment and the potential impact of inflation on the Materials sector. Additionally, guidance cuts could negatively affect sentiment and estimates.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The latest earnings miss has negatively impacted the outlook for OI. Recent financial performance remains below its industry peers, which is concerning. The overall market backdrop has also shifted to a risk-off sentiment, adding pressure.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue to drive cost savings and operational improvements through the Fit to Win initiative.
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $50 million in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, OI's performance will depend on management's execution of their priorities and broader market conditions. Not investment advice.