Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
O-I Glass, Inc. (OI)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.39-1.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.50 → 0.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage debt via refinancing and capital allocation | A supporting condition in O-I Glass, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is successful refinancing of $500 million debt. | Recovered | failure to refinance $500 million debt by 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OI is a challenged, cyclical industrial business with a recovery-dependent long-term thesis. The thesis is in a watch state, with recent performance below its industry cohort and earnings misses across recent quarters.
The valuation is still at a premium to peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain difficult to meet. The valuation measure has fallen sharply, but the evidence does not show that OI is cheap versus peers; the priced-in assessment is marked justified, with low fragility.
Near term, repeated earnings misses and a 50% estimated miss probability keep execution risk elevated. Fit to Win produced about $50 million of benefits in the latest quarter, but adjusted EBITDA was lower year over year, Europe operating profit fell sharply, and the outlook points to a large free cash flow use and higher leverage. These results leave the multi-year improvement story dependent on savings translating into stronger overall performance.
The next earnings call is a key near-term test: a guidance cut would add to the negative pattern. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on operational savings, Europe recovery, and stronger cash generation with lower leverage. Sector bellwethers could either sustain the Materials tailwind or signal that it is fading.
For the next 1 to 3 years, OI’s thesis remains fragile at the business level, despite a supportive sector backdrop. The central question is whether management can turn stated priorities into better results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in O-I Glass, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $1.00 and $1.50. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $1.00 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Fit to Win initiative delivers cost savings | O-I Glass aims to improve profits through its Fit to Win cost savings program. | Under Pressure | cost savings fall below $275 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Free cash flow improves to positive range | The company targets $1.0 to $1.5 EPS in 2026 and $50 to $150 million free cash flow. | Broken | free cash flow falls below $50 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $84M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: free cash flow at least $50 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202684,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.87 → $0.83 · observed estimates
$6.58B → $6.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.87 | $6,581,228,090 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.87 | $6,581,228,090 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.87 | $6,581,228,090 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.87 | $6,581,228,090 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.87 | $6,581,228,090 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.87 | $6,581,228,090 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.87 | $6,581,228,090 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.87 | $6,581,228,090 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.50 | $6,549,294,260 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.50 | $6,549,294,260 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.50 | $6,549,294,260 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.50 | $6,549,294,260 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.50 | $6,549,294,260 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.50 | $6,549,294,260 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.50 | $6,549,260,928 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.51 | $6,555,270,951 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.50 | $6,552,604,284 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.50 | $6,552,604,284 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.50 | $6,552,604,284 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.50 | $6,552,604,284 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.50 | $6,552,604,284 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.50 | $6,552,604,284 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.50 | $6,552,604,284 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.50 | $6,552,604,284 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.50 | $6,552,604,284 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.50 | $6,544,782,062 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.50 | $6,544,782,062 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.50 | $6,544,782,062 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.50 | $6,544,782,062 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.50 | $6,544,782,062 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.50 | $6,543,237,884 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.50 | $6,543,237,884 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.47 | $6,535,458,374 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.45 | $6,530,913,946 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.45 | $6,530,913,946 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.45 | $6,530,913,946 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.45 | $6,530,913,946 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.45 | $6,530,913,946 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.45 | $6,530,913,946 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.44 | $6,527,325,057 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.44 | $6,527,325,057 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.44 | $6,527,325,057 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.44 | $6,527,325,057 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.44 | $6,527,325,057 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.44 | $6,527,325,057 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.44 | $6,527,325,057 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.42 | $6,537,658,390 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.42 | $6,537,658,390 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.39 | $6,495,615,689 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.39 | $6,495,615,689 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.39 | $6,495,615,689 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.39 | $6,495,615,689 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.39 | $6,495,615,689 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.39 | $6,495,615,689 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.39 | $6,495,615,689 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.96 | $6,382,865,458 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.83 | $6,346,040,458 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.83 | $6,346,040,458 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.83 | $6,346,040,458 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.83 | $6,346,040,458 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.83 | $6,346,040,458 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.83 | $6,346,040,458 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.