O-I Glass, Inc. (OI)
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.14+1.56%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -52.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 54.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
OI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-28
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On July 28, 2026, O-I Glass, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information set forth in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (…
Why it matters: New partnerships could boost growth and offset recent financial losses. This is key for future performance.
Supportive ifNew partnerships announced will help increase revenue.
Worry ifNo new partnerships were announced. This shows a lack of growth.
Why it matters: The use of proceeds will show how the company manages its capital structure and addresses debt. This impacts financial stability.
Watch forThe $500 million will help pay off old notes and improve cash flow.
Also watch forNo clear plan or negative updates regarding the debt issuance and its impact on financial health.
Why it matters: Details on how O-I Glass uses the $500 million debt could impact its financial health and growth plans.
Watch forA clear plan on how the $500 million debt will be allocated to growth initiatives.
Also watch forNo clear plan or negative commentary on the debt's impact on operations.
Why it matters: This plan is important for managing costs. Ongoing savings show better operations and profits.
Supportive ifManagement reports more than $100 million in net savings from the Fit to Win plan.
Worry ifSavings reported are below $50 million. This suggests the plan is losing steam.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$206 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $475 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,176 loss on $10,000 · 61.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: How the company manages debt affects its financial health. Good refinancing can help cash flow.
Supportive ifRefinancing notes with good terms helps cash flow. This is a positive change.
Worry ifFailure to refinance or worse debt terms leads to more financial stress.
Why it matters: The European market has had problems. Improvement here could show growth is coming.
Supportive ifSales in Europe are getting better, moving from breakeven to making money.
Worry ifSales in Europe are still going down or staying at breakeven.
Why it matters: A big change in energy costs could lead to new guidance. This would affect profits and cash flow.
Worry ifManagement says energy costs are rising and this affects guidance.
Less concerning ifManagement confirms stable or lower energy costs with no change to guidance.
Why it matters: New partnerships could help O-I Glass grow and improve its market position. This is key for future revenue.
Supportive ifLook for news about a new partnership with financial details.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A positive change in sector revenue growth could signal a recovery for O-I Glass and its peers.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being near -2 percent.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Better sales in Europe are key for the company's overall success. This shows recovery in a tough market.
Supportive ifEuropean sales volumes rise by at least 5% from last quarter.
Worry ifEuropean sales volumes drop more or stay the same.
Why it matters: Better operating income is important for financial health. It shows if management is doing well.
Supportive ifOperating income is getting better. It is moving closer to making money.
Worry ifOperating income is still going down or stays negative.
Why it matters: An increase shows that management is making progress in Europe.
Supportive ifEurope segment operating profit is more than $20 million in Q3.
Worry ifEurope segment operating profit is less than $6 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if O-I Glass is making more money and cutting costs.
Worry ifQ2 earnings show that operating income is better than in Q1.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings show a decline in operating income compared to Q1.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would show ongoing problems and cost issues.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was less than $1 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was more than $1 billion.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show good cost control and gains in operations.
Supportive ifFit to Win program reports $200 million in benefits for 2026.
Worry ifFit to Win program reports less than $200 million in benefits for 2026.