Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Okta, Inc. (OKTA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$171.16-10.41%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.35 → 4.34 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 24 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 24 to 24; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OKTA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow near $870 million | Free cash flow rises near $870 million. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $800 million next year | Free cash flow: $233M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $870 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 2026233,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 1, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented identity software business with improving profitability, rather than a proven, consistently profitable compounder. Its multi-year view is intact, though the recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a 2.51 peer premium and a modest expectations gap of 0.3. The evidence points to valuation as the main source of fragility, while confidence in the valuation model is low.
Near-term results show solid execution: revenue grew 11% year over year in each of the cited quarters, GAAP operating income improved, and free cash flow margin was steady. Management is on track with its stated priorities, but the business remains loss-making on the earnings-quality measure, and recent peer misses and a past deep miss are reasons to watch execution.
The near-term thesis would weaken if management cuts guidance on the next call. It could gain support if interest rates ease or major technology companies stabilize, but those outcomes are uncertain and do not change the need for continued company execution.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on sustained revenue growth, better operating results, and cash generation; expensive valuation and elevated risk make guidance and execution important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Okta, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~25.5%. |
| Intact |
| Operating margin falls below 22% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of about 9% to 10% year-over-year | A primary condition in Okta, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=9% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 9% next year | Revenue growth: 10.58% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 27, 202610.576923 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document Exhibit 99.1 Okta Announces Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results • Q2 revenue grew 11% and subscription revenue grew 12% year-over-year • Remaining performance obligations (RPO) grew 17% year-over-year; current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) grew 14% year-over-year • Operating cash flow of $234 million and free cash flow of $227 million SAN FRANCISCO – August 26, 2026 – Okta, Inc. (Nasdaq: OKTA), the leading independent identity provider, today announced financial results for its second quarter ended July 31, 2026.” “cRPO, which represents subscription backlog expected to be recognized over the next 12 months, was $2.585 billion, up 14% compared to the second quarter of fiscal 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.26 → $4.34 · observed estimates
$3.50B → $3.54B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.26 | $3,502,593,069 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.26 | $3,502,593,069 | 24 / 33 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,649 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,649 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,649 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,648 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,648 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,651 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,651 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,651 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,651 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,652 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,652 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,652 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,652 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,652 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,652 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,652 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.28 | $3,504,869,110 | 44 / 43 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,652 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,652 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,652 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,652 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,652 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,652 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.26 | $3,502,603,652 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.27 | $3,503,196,882 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.27 | $3,503,094,074 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.27 | $3,503,088,613 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.27 | $3,503,088,613 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.27 | $3,503,088,613 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.27 | $3,502,997,670 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.27 | $3,502,997,670 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.27 | $3,502,997,670 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.27 | $3,502,997,670 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.34 | $3,542,725,780 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.34 | $3,542,725,780 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.34 | $3,542,725,780 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.34 | $3,542,725,780 | 24 / 32 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.34 | $3,542,725,780 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.34 | $3,542,513,621 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.34 | $3,542,513,621 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.34 | $3,542,600,780 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.34 | $3,542,600,780 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.34 | $3,544,003,364 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.34 | $3,544,003,364 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.34 | $3,544,002,449 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.34 | $3,544,002,449 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.34 | $3,544,002,449 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.34 | $3,544,002,449 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.34 | $3,544,002,449 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.34 | $3,544,002,449 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.34 | $3,544,021,321 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.34 | $3,544,012,708 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.34 | $3,544,012,708 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.34 | $3,544,012,708 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.34 | $3,544,012,708 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.34 | $3,544,013,470 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.34 | $3,544,013,470 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.34 | $3,543,994,606 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.34 | $3,543,994,606 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.34 | $3,544,000,136 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.34 | $3,544,000,162 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.34 | $3,544,092,470 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.34 | $3,544,092,470 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.34 | $3,544,092,470 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.34 | $3,544,101,082 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.34 | $3,544,101,082 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.35 | $3,544,101,082 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.35 | $3,544,101,085 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.35 | $3,544,101,085 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.35 | $3,544,101,085 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.35 | $3,544,101,085 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.35 | $3,544,092,472 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.35 | $3,544,092,472 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.35 | $3,544,092,472 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.35 | $3,544,092,472 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.35 | $3,544,092,472 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.34 | $3,543,815,160 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.34 | $3,543,803,022 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.34 | $3,543,803,022 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.34 | $3,543,803,022 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.34 | $3,543,803,022 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.34 | $3,543,803,022 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.34 | $3,543,803,022 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.34 | $3,543,803,022 | 24 / 31 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 34 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.