Okta, Inc. (OKTA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$191.05+0.72%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OKTA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 31.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
OKTA — director transition
Dated 2026-09-18
Director — Emilie Choi: This is a routine board-level change involving the resignation of a director and the appointment of a successor, which does not constitute a loss of senior executive management.
Why it matters: Okta said new products, led by Identity Governance, helped Q2 growth. More gains would show that newer products add to core identity sales.
Supportive ifAt the next earnings call, Okta says Identity Governance helped growth again. It reports higher sales or more customer use.
Worry ifOkta says Identity Governance no longer drives growth. Or, it reports lower sales or customer use.
Why it matters: Okta raised its full-year cash flow view to $910 million to $930 million. A result below $910 million would miss the new range.
Worry ifFY27 free cash flow is below $910 million, the low end of the updated range.
Less concerning ifFY27 free cash flow is at least $910 million and stays within or above the updated range.
Why it matters: Okta guided to a 24% to 25% Q3 margin. A lower result would miss the stated range and weaken its margin progress.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP operating margin is below 24%, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP operating margin is 24% or higher.
Why it matters: Q2 cRPO growth rose to 14% from 12% in Q1. Growth above 14% would show that subscription demand keeps gaining pace.
Supportive ifIn the December 1, 2026 results, cRPO grows more than 14% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 cRPO growth is 12% or less year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$213 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $571 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,310 loss on $10,000 · 33.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management sees AI agents as a new identity need. Named customer wins or sales would give proof that this opportunity is gaining traction.
Supportive ifOkta names a customer or contract for AI agent identity tools. Or, it shares a sales figure for these tools.
Worry ifBy the next earnings call, Okta has no named customer or contract for AI agent identity. It also has no sales proof.
Why it matters: Okta kept its full-year revenue growth view at 10% to 11%. Growth below 10% would fall short of that range's floor.
Worry ifQ3 revenue grows less than 10% year over year, below the stated 10% Q3 growth view.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue grows 10% or more year over year, in line with or above the stated view.