Okta, Inc. (OKTA)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$170.60+0.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OKTA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OKTA — officer change
Dated 2026-04-22
Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary — Larissa Schwartz: Larissa Schwartz is leaving her role as Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps Okta improve how it runs its operations.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above $50 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $50 million in Q2.
Why it matters: A free cash flow margin below 21% may show issues with cash and spending.
Worry ifFree cash flow margin for Q3 is reported below 21%.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow margin for Q3 is reported at 21% or higher.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company plans and affect investor trust.
Watch forA new Chief Legal Officer or other key executive has been announced.
Also watch forNo further executive changes announced in the near term.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is vital for funding growth. A drop signals potential cash flow issues.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $155 million.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported at or above $155 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$246 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $484 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,370 loss on $10,000 · 33.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The departure may affect company stability and plans. It is important to watch this.
Worry ifA new Chief Legal Officer was announced. This helps stabilize the leadership team.
Less concerning ifThere is no announcement or more problems in the leadership team.
Why it matters: cRPO growth indicates future revenue potential. Slower growth could signal a decline in customer demand.
Worry ifcRPO growth is below 11% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifcRPO growth exceeds 12% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Enhancing cash from operations is important. Growth below 5% could signal cash flow issues.
Worry ifCash from operations growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifCash from operations growth reported at or above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A margin below 24% shows possible problems with costs and making money.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating income margin for Q3 is below 24%.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP operating income margin for Q3 is 24% or more.
Why it matters: This revenue range shows if growth is slowing or staying strong. It reflects management's focus on increasing revenue.
Supportive ifTotal revenue reported at $817 million or higher for Q3.
Worry ifTotal revenue reported below $813 million for Q3.
Why it matters: This range shows how well Okta is securing future revenue. It is key for understanding ongoing demand.
Supportive ifCurrent RPO reported at $2.600 billion or higher.
Worry ifCurrent RPO reported below $2.590 billion.
Why it matters: This range shows if Okta is making more money. It shows how much management cares about operating income.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP diluted net income per share reported at $0.94 or higher.
Worry ifNon-GAAP diluted net income per share reported below $0.92.
Why it matters: This range indicates how well Okta is managing cash. It shows the strength of cash flow generation.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at $185 million or higher.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $175 million.