Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Universal Display (OLED)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$87.13-2.72%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.71 → 4.63 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OLED yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase dividend per share to $0.50 in Q1 2026 | The company raised its dividend to $0.50 per share in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.50 in Q1 2026 | Dividend per share: $0.50 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.50 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 20260.5 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an established technology business with a multi-year thesis tied to OLED materials innovation and wider customer adoption. The thesis is intact, but execution quality is mixed and risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence describes OLED as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The evidence also says the current pricing is justified by weak execution, and fragility is low rather than broadly concentrated.
Near term, results show improvement: third-quarter revenue and operating income were higher year over year, and the latest reported event was an earnings beat. But management had lowered its annual outlook and expected results near the lower end of its guidance range, while recent misses and a downward trend in earnings surprises remain risks. Over the multi-year view, management continues to emphasize innovation and customer adoption, but quantified evidence of innovation progress is limited.
A favorable near-term shift would require guidance to recover after the reduction, alongside continued delivery on revenue and operating income. Rate cuts or stabilization among technology peers could also support the sector backdrop, but these are external factors rather than proof of company execution.
For the next one to three years, the long-term thesis remains intact, supported by improved quarterly results and a valuation described as cheap versus peers. Its main test is whether OLED can turn stated innovation and adoption priorities into sustained growth while addressing the reduced outlook and elevated execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Universal Display's published investment case. The stated target is >= $42.75 million. |
| Broken |
| Operating income falls below $42.75 million in Q1 2026 |
Operating income: $53.705M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $42.75 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 202653,705,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue near $650 million in FY 2026 | A primary condition in Universal Display's published investment case. The stated target is ~$650 million. | Broken | Revenue falls below $630 million in FY 2026 | Revenue: $160.432M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$650 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 2026160,432,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.96 → $4.63 · observed estimates
$0.70B → $0.67B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.96 | $696,805,240 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.96 | $696,805,240 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.96 | $696,805,240 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.96 | $696,805,240 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.91 | $696,205,892 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.96 | $696,805,240 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.96 | $696,805,240 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.85 | $692,248,017 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.85 | $692,248,017 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.79 | $682,995,360 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.75 | $680,669,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.75 | $680,669,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.79 | $682,995,360 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.75 | $680,669,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.75 | $680,669,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.79 | $682,995,360 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.79 | $682,995,360 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.79 | $682,995,360 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.79 | $682,995,360 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.79 | $682,995,360 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.75 | $680,669,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.75 | $680,669,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.75 | $680,669,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.75 | $680,669,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.75 | $680,669,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.75 | $680,669,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.75 | $680,669,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.75 | $680,669,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.75 | $680,669,780 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.71 | $679,051,178 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.67 | $675,970,757 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.63 | $675,524,186 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.63 | $671,001,072 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.63 | $670,363,666 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.63 | $670,363,666 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.63 | $670,363,666 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.63 | $670,363,666 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.63 | $670,363,666 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.