Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$76.57+3.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OLLI
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $77 OLLI trades at 17× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median — but our blended $89 fair value sits above the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $80–$152. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $108.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $144.06 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $142.89 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $56.26 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$80.00 – $152.00 (median $108.00) · 23 analysts · as of 2026-09-03
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 74% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 5.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.40/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $62.39 |
| 10.4 |
| 5.87 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $56.81 | 16.1 | 3.53 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $73.36 | 15.3 | 4.81 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $36.71 | 0.8 | 44.71 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $56.70 | 12.7 | 4.47 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $38.94 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $87.05 | 19.5 | 4.47 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $69.79 | 15.1 | 4.62 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $86.41 | 16.1 | 5.37 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $89.79 | 15.3 | 5.88 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $52.88 | 0.8 | 64.42 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $74.61 | 12.7 | 5.88 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $114.54 | 19.5 | 5.88 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $114.27 | 16.1 | 7.10 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $110.66 | 15.3 | 7.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $65.17 | 0.8 | 79.39 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $91.95 | 12.7 | 7.25 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $141.15 | 19.5 | 7.25 | Analyst | medium |