Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$93.00-1.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.94 → 4.96 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OLLI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase EPS to about $4.5 in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Ollie's Bargain Outlet's published investment case. The stated target is $4.45 to $4.55 EPS. | Intact | EPS falls below $4.3 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $1.42 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $4.45 to $4.55 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 2, 20261.42 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 8, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OLLI is a growth-oriented retailer whose thesis depends on continued revenue and earnings execution. The current long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance holding in the top half of its industry, but earnings quality is fragile and risk is elevated.
The valuation carries a durable premium of about 31% versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are somewhat ahead of the model’s view. The evidence labels this premium justified and the risk of fragility low, but the premium leaves execution important.
Near term, management’s fiscal 2026 priorities remain on track: revenue guidance is near $3 billion, adjusted earnings guidance has risen, and gross margin has exceeded its stated level in a recent quarter. Recent earnings beats and a mild improvement in the overall signal support the setup, though past deep misses and a downward trend in earnings surprises leave some risk.
A key near-term test is whether guidance reverses course and rises next quarter after the earlier reduction. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on management delivering its revenue, earnings, and margin priorities; strength or weakness among major consumer discretionary companies could affect the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, OLLI’s thesis rests on sustained execution against its growth and margin priorities, with recent results supportive but earnings quality and valuation expectations still important risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company keeps gross margin near 40.5%. |
| Intact |
| gross margin falls below 39% in FY26 |
Gross margin: 43.46% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=40.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 2, 202643.45917 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “New store openings 75 Net sales $2.985 to $3.013 billion Comparable store sales growth ~2% Gross margin ~40.5% Operating income $339 to $348 million Adjusted net income (1)(2) $270 to $277 million Adjusted net income per diluted share (1)(2) $4.40 to $4.50 Annual effective tax rate (2) ~25% Diluted weighted average shares outstanding ~61.4 million Capital expenditures $103 to $113 million Share repurchases ~$100 million (1) Includes interest income of approximately $21 million.” “We continue to see strong deal flow and remain committed to reinvesting in price and strengthening our competitive position.” Gross profit was $322.165 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Grow revenue to about $3 billion in fiscal 2026 | Ollie's grows sales to about $3 billion in 2026. | Under Pressure | revenue falls below $2.65 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $741.305M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.0B total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 2, 2026741,305,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We opened 27 new stores, grew our Ollie’s Army membership base by 13%, made progress on our category productivity initiatives, reinvested in our supply chain, and returned $53 million to shareholders through share repurchases in the first quarter.” “New store openings 75 Net sales $2.985 to $3.013 billion Comparable store sales growth ~2% Gross margin ~40.5% Operating income $339 to $348 million Adjusted net income (1)(2) $270 to $277 million Adjusted net income per diluted share (1)(2) $4.40 to $4.50 Annual effective tax rate (2) ~25% Diluted weighted average shares outstanding ~61.4 million Capital expenditures $103 to $113 million Share repurchases ~$100 million (1) Includes interest income of approximately $21 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.06 → $4.96 · observed estimates
$3.30B → $3.26B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.06 | $3,300,180,423 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.06 | $3,300,180,423 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.06 | $3,300,180,423 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.06 | $3,300,180,423 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.06 | $3,300,180,423 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.06 | $3,300,180,423 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.06 | $3,300,180,423 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.06 | $3,300,180,423 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.06 | $3,300,180,423 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.05 | $3,296,626,760 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.05 | $3,296,613,756 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.03 | $3,292,193,426 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.03 | $3,292,193,426 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.03 | $3,292,193,426 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.03 | $3,291,126,759 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.03 | $3,291,126,759 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.03 | $3,291,126,759 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.03 | $3,291,126,759 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.03 | $3,291,126,759 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.03 | $3,291,126,759 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.02 | $3,287,630,402 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.02 | $3,287,630,402 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.02 | $3,287,630,402 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.02 | $3,284,951,269 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.02 | $3,284,951,269 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.96 | $3,264,561,391 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.94 | $3,260,255,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.94 | $3,260,282,213 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.94 | $3,260,282,213 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.94 | $3,260,282,213 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.94 | $3,260,282,213 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.94 | $3,260,282,213 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.94 | $3,260,282,213 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.94 | $3,260,282,213 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.94 | $3,260,282,213 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.94 | $3,260,282,213 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.94 | $3,260,282,213 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.94 | $3,260,282,213 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.94 | $3,260,282,213 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.94 | $3,260,282,213 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.95 | $3,262,015,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.95 | $3,262,015,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.95 | $3,262,015,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.95 | $3,262,015,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.95 | $3,262,015,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.95 | $3,262,015,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.95 | $3,262,015,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.95 | $3,262,015,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.95 | $3,262,015,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.95 | $3,262,015,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.95 | $3,262,015,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.95 | $3,262,015,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.95 | $3,262,015,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.95 | $3,262,015,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.96 | $3,263,555,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.96 | $3,263,555,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.96 | $3,263,555,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.96 | $3,263,555,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.96 | $3,263,555,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.96 | $3,263,555,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.96 | $3,263,555,546 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.96 | $3,263,555,546 | 9 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.