Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$94.11+5.77%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OLLI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 12.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
OLLI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-12
of on this Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Why it matters: New stores drove Q2 sales growth, but store expansion remains a stated goal. Results will show whether Ollie's keeps pace.
Supportive ifThe company reports opening at least 75 new stores in fiscal 2026. Storm-related closures do not count.
Worry ifThe company reports fewer than 75 new stores opened, or lowers its 75-store goal.
Why it matters: The sector note says consumer discretionary revenue is shrinking, with growth near 2% over three years. Positive retail sales data would ease that concern.
Watch forThe November 17 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 0%.
Also watch forThe November 17 report shows retail sales growth below 0%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$174 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $465 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,189 loss on $10,000 · 51.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.