Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$76.57+3.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryDiscount StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OLLI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 15.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OLLI — earnings miss
Dated 2026-03-12
of on this Form 8-K, including the exhibit attached, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would show strong business momentum and confidence.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance to more than $3 billion.
Worry ifRevenue guidance remains at or below $2.98 billion.
Why it matters: Fewer new store openings would signal a slowdown in expansion and growth strategy.
Worry ifNew store openings reported below 15 for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNew store openings reported at or above 15 for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to reaching the $3 billion target in fiscal 2026. Strong results would support management's growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Falling short of this target could signal challenges in achieving growth goals.
Worry ifRevenue for fiscal 2026 is reported below $2.98 billion.
Less concerning ifRevenue for fiscal 2026 exceeds $3 billion.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$177 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $410 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,526 loss on $10,000 · 55.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher repurchases indicate confidence in the stock and can boost earnings per share.
Supportive ifShare buybacks are over $125 million.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $100 million.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability. A drop below $1.39 may raise concerns.
Worry ifEarnings per share reported below $1.39 for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifEarnings per share reported at or above $1.39 for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a shift in the growth phase for the sector.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below the median growth rate for the last two years.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains above the median growth rate for the last two years.
Why it matters: An increase in EPS guidance would indicate stronger earnings growth and confidence in the business.
Supportive ifManagement raises EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 to over $4.55.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers EPS guidance to below $4.45.
Why it matters: A smaller decline would show better consumer demand and help stabilize revenue growth.
Supportive ifComparable store sales decline stays better than -2.5% in Q3.
Worry ifComparable store sales decline worsens beyond -2.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: A strong gross margin helps make more money. It shows good cost management.
Supportive ifGross margin remains above 41% for the fiscal year.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 40% for the fiscal year.
Why it matters: Meeting the store opening target shows growth. It means more market presence.
Supportive ifTotal new store openings reach 75 by the end of fiscal 2026.
Worry ifNew store openings fall short of 75 by the end of fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Matching guidance with recent trends shows that management reacts to market changes.
Watch forManagement says net sales will be $2.928 billion.
Also watch forManagement cuts net sales guidance to below $2.928 billion.