Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.070.00%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating margin near 21.5% in FY26: FY26 guidance mid 21.5% vs target 21.5%; TTM actual -1.6%.
Olaplex leads in hair care with bond-building tech. Revenue is guided near $425 million in 2026. Profit margins are expected around 21.5%. The company has strong brand loyalty and growth potential.
Olaplex is loss-making with operating income negative in early 2026. The market values it richly with a PE of 34.5 versus peers at 17.3. Recent merger and delisting risks add uncertainty.
The price is about 40% above our fair value near $1.54. Analysts expect modest 3% revenue growth. Our view is more cautious given current losses and merger risks.
Breaks if: Further key management departures or integration failures occur
Breaks if: Operating margin falls below 20% in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $410 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation. OLPX is currently in a phase of integrating its merger while managing recent financial weaknesses and sector headwinds.
The market seems to be pricing in a level of fragility due to the turbulent sector conditions. There is an expectations gap, suggesting that the current valuation may not fully reflect the challenges OLPX faces.
Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure in the near term, given the company's recent weak financial performance and ongoing integration efforts. However, the risk of missing earnings is relatively low, though the company has a history of consecutive earnings misses.
The long-term thesis hinges on the successful integration of the Henkel merger and the ability to manage debt effectively. Additionally, broader sector performance, particularly from major players like AMZN and BABA, could influence OLPX's trajectory.
In the next 1 to 3 years, OLPX's performance will depend on its execution of management priorities and external market conditions. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.