Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.070.00%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OLPX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 45 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OLPX — M&A activity — Changes in Control of Registrant
Dated 2026-07-07
Changes in Control of Registrant. As a result of the consummation of the Merger, a change in control of the Company occurred, and the Company became a wholly owned Subsidiary of Parent. The total equity value of the transaction was approximately $1.4 billion. The funds used by Parent to consummate the Merger and complete the related transactions came from cash on hand of Parent and its affiliates. The information set forth in the Introductory Note of this Current Report on Form 8-K and the di…
Why it matters: New product launches can drive sales growth and improve market position after the merger.
Supportive ifManagement shares news of new products that boost sales.
Worry ifNo new products announced or existing products are not doing well.
Why it matters: Management's revenue guidance is a key indicator of growth. It shows how well the company is doing.
Watch forManagement says 2026 revenue will be between $414 million and $435 million.
Also watch forManagement lowers 2026 revenue guidance from the current range.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it means more people want Olaplex products.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported as positive year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported as negative year over year.
Why it matters: Gross margin is key for making money. Stability shows good cost control.
Supportive ifAdjusted gross margin for Q2 2026 stays within the guided range of 71% to 72%.
Worry ifAdjusted gross margin for Q2 2026 drops below 71%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$49 on $10,000 · ±0.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $564 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,442 loss on $10,000 · 34.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Delisting could hurt how easily Olaplex shares trade.
Worry ifNasdaq has confirmed the delisting.
Less concerning ifOlaplex stays listed on Nasdaq or has delays in the delisting.
Why it matters: Management has set a revenue target of $414 million to $435 million for 2026. Meeting this target shows stability in sales.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported at or above $105 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $100 million.
Why it matters: Operating margin shows how well the company controls costs. It's key to long-term growth.
Watch forOperating margin gets better to -$4 million or more in Q2 2026.
Also watch forOperating margin worsens to -$6 million or worse in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Delisting changes how investors see Olaplex. It shows a change in the market.
Worry ifThe delisting from Nasdaq is final. Shares are no longer trading.
Less concerning ifOlaplex remains listed on Nasdaq beyond the planned delisting date.
Why it matters: The court's choice on the settlement will affect shareholder rights at Olaplex.
Watch forCourt approval of the settlement on July 27, 2026.
Also watch forThe court may reject the settlement, causing more legal issues.
Why it matters: Repaying debt improves financial health and reduces risk. It is a key step in Olaplex's transformation.
Supportive ifAll debt must be repaid after the merger.
Worry ifReports show that debt repayment is not done as planned.
Why it matters: Paying off debt could help Olaplex's finances. It may lower interest costs.
Supportive ifManagement says all debts are paid after the merger.
Worry ifDebt stays the same or grows because of unexpected costs.
Why it matters: Completing the merger will be a big change for Olaplex. It may help its market position.
Supportive ifThe merger is done with Henkel. Olaplex becomes a fully owned subsidiary.
Worry ifThe merger has delays or problems that stop it from finishing.
Why it matters: The court's decision on the settlement could affect shareholder rights. It may also change corporate rules.
Watch forThe court agrees to the settlement. This ends the derivative lawsuit.
Also watch forThe court rejects the settlement. This allows the derivative litigation to continue.
Why it matters: Final approval will fix legal issues at Olaplex. This may help investor trust.
Supportive ifThe court approves the settlement. Shareholders have no objections.
Worry ifThe court rejects the settlement. Shareholders raise major objections.
Why it matters: Completing the merger is key for Olaplex's future. It could improve operations and market position.
Supportive ifThe merger with Henkel is done. All integration steps are completed.
Worry ifThe merger has delays or problems. These hurt integration efforts.
Why it matters: The court's decision on the settlement may change Olaplex's governance and legal risks.
Watch forThe court approves the settlement. New governance reforms are adopted.
Also watch forThe court rejects the settlement. This leads to longer litigation and uncertainty.