Omnicom Group (OMC)
NYSECommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$87.51+5.22%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OMC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OMC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 22, 2026, Omnicom Group Inc. ("Omnicom," the "Company," "we," "our" or "us") published an earnings release reporting its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report and is incorporated by reference herein in its entirety.
Why it matters: Management named agentic marketing as a focus, but the releases give no use or revenue measure. A reported measure would show progress beyond plans.
Supportive ifOmnicom reports a client count, revenue, or usage measure tied to agentic marketing or AI.
Worry ifThe next two quarterly reports name agentic marketing as a focus but give no client, revenue, or use measure.
Why it matters: Management says it is on track to save $900 million this year. That would show the IPG deal is meeting a key cost goal.
Supportive ifIn its 2026 results, Omnicom reports at least $900 million in cost savings from the IPG deal.
Worry ifOmnicom reports less than $900 million in 2026 savings, or says it missed that goal.
Why it matters: Core organic growth rose from 3.9% in Q1 to 7.2% in Q3. A rate above 6% would keep that growth trend intact.
Supportive ifThe next reported quarter shows core organic revenue growth above 6% year over year.
Worry ifThe next reported quarter shows core organic revenue growth below 3.9%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$140 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $303 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,785 loss on $10,000 · 17.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.