ON Semiconductor (ON)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$91.10-3.79%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $91.10. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $91 ON trades at 40× p/e, below its 73× p/e peer median, but our blended $87 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $95–$140. Note: our $87 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($95–$140). Not investment advice.
$95.00 – $140.00 (median $120.00) · 9 analysts · as of 2026-07-01
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 159% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 14.1 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.37/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $120.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $20.63 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $19.22 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $30.67 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $26.43 | 19.4 | 1.49 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $127.96 | 50.3 | 2.54 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $165.08 | 73.4 | 2.25 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $161.29 | 10.5 | 15.38 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $51.57 | 22.9 | 2.25 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $20.12 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $62.60 | 27.8 | 2.25 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $169.14 | 73.4 | 2.31 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $94.29 | 50.3 | 1.87 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $380.32 | 73.4 | 5.18 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $230.19 | 10.5 | 21.96 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $118.80 | 22.9 | 5.18 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $144.23 | 27.8 | 5.18 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $76.93 | 50.3 | 1.53 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $479.66 | 73.4 | 6.54 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $290.32 | 10.5 | 27.69 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $149.84 | 22.9 | 6.54 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $181.90 | 27.8 | 6.54 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.